The plot thickens ahead of the Ulster Unionist Council showdown on September 21st with both anti- and pro-agreement advocates seemingly prepared to conspire against the Ulster Unionist leader. Frank Millar,London Editor, analyses the various intrigues that could finally force the end of the Trimble era
"Might we be witnessing the final phase of the Trimble era?" Inevitably, British and Irish ministers and officials will have asked themselves that question at various points during the past four years. Nor - despite Mr Trimble's occasional suspicions - is that because either government can contemplate a more benign political scenario in Northern Ireland under an alternative unionist leadership.
The simple fact is that Mr Trimble has been living at the edge since failing to win a conclusive unionist majority for the Belfast Agreement in the 1998 Assembly elections.
It was as much proportional representation as the unionist electorate which handed him his "mandate" to proceed into the power- sharing Executive.
Amazingly, that mandate only finally expired last autumn, at which point Mr Trimble sustained himself further by the highly dubious device of having Alliance members redesignate themselves as "unionists" for the purpose of re-electing him First Minister. In between, he has survived a series of internal revolts which would have seen off lesser men - most spectacularly the Rev Martin Smyth's 47 per cent share of the vote in the March 2000 leadership contest.
It is arguable that, had Mr Jeffrey Donaldson also entered the fray at that point, Mr Trimble's leadership would have unravelled. What seems beyond question is that Mr Smyth's challenge marked the high point of the anti-agreement campaign inside the Ulster Unionist Council (UUC). Since then Mr Trimble has slightly increased his margin of advantage, twice.
That fact helps explains the widespread assumption that the next planned showdown, two weeks from today, will go the way of the others and again see Mr Trimble weather the storm.
There is no such complacency in London or Dublin. Indeed the fear this might prove "the final phase of the Trimble era" was voiced recently by a visiting diplomat, who professed himself astonished upon discovering just how "friendless" the UUP leader appeared to be.
Mr Trimble has (thus far at least) been blessed by the quality of his opposition. However, he has perhaps not always been as forthcoming as his friends might wish in acknowledging his debt to them. And it is some of those he previously has been able to count as friends and allies who now seem tempted to finally push him over the edge.
The Irish Times has this week confirmed high, and seemingly growing, levels of discontent with the Trimble leadership among influential pro-agreement unionists, fuelling fevered behind-the-scenes speculation that, come October, the UUP might face a leadership choice between Mr Jeffrey Donaldson and the Stormont Enterprise Minister, Sir Reg Empey.
In answer to questions submitted by this newspaper during the summer, Sir Reg has already disowned those party officers and Assembly members sponsoring the idea of a Donaldson/Empey "dream ticket" succession, and confirmed his view that Mr Trimble would and should lead the party into next year's Assembly election. Moreover, Mr Trimble has the assurance - reportedly repeated in a recent private conversation between the two men - that Sir Reg will never stand against him.
An additional piece of welcome news for Mr Trimble is the suggestion that Mr David Burnside's push for another confrontation at the UUC may have halted separate moves to have some senior party officers - generally referred to as "the men in suits" - seek to persuade him to stand down.
Fresh sources this week confirmed that such a move had been contemplated, one saying: "We've done everything we could to save the Belfast Agreement, now it's time to save the party."
However, he added that the decision to reconvene the UUC would "probably have the effect of pushing people back into their corners". Leading anti-agreement campaigners appear unconvinced. "If David loses the vote on policy, the men in suits will have a part to play and they know it," said one last night. Advocates of an Empey leadership agree. Their fear is that Mr Trimble could lose the September 21st vote on policy, then "do a John Major" and stage another UUC with a "back me or sack me" ultimatum, pointing to a straight fight between him and Mr Donaldson. Their hope, as one expressed it last night, is that in that event Mr Trimble - "with the help of his closest friends" - would see the writing on the wall, fall on his sword and allow Sir Reg to enter the race. The implication is that this source and others are readying themselves to secretly vote against Trimble in the hope of forcing just such a scenario.
"My personal view is that David is devalued, his credibility is badly shot," he said: "And I have to say so is Jeffrey's because he's been at the altar that many times and run out just as the vicar was about to perform the ceremony." To most outsiders the idea that pro- and anti-agreement unionists could find common cause in conspiracy against Mr Trimble will seem beyond fantasy.
But faced with the seeming and many inherent contradictions of such a design, pro and anti alike offer the same essential response "It's the election, stupid." These Ulster Unionists are gripped by fear of electoral humiliation at the hands of the DUP.
And a measure of the potential seriousness of the latest enterprise against Mr Trimble lies in the acknowledgement by anti-agreement strategists that the policy tilt against Mr Trimble in a fortnight's time will be designed to span the traditional pro and anti-agreement divide. Plotters on both sides confirm this seems to point to agreement on a phased withdrawal from the Executive and other institutions of the agreement.
Whatever the final detail of the motion to go before the UUC, the shared assumption is that the UUP cannot go in to the Assembly election as partners in government with Sinn Féin.
If that proves the dominant disposition within the UUC, then two things seem clear. First, that any fresh demands made of the IRA and Sinn Féin would - this side of the election at any rate - prove impossible to satisfy. Second, that the Ulster Unionists - under whichever leader - will inevitably have to converge on the existing commitment of their DUP rivals to force a re-negotiation of the Belfast Agreement.
None of which need necessarily spell the end of Mr Trimble. The nightmare scenario on both sides is that he could easily adapt himself to a new policy of non-participation with Sinn Féin pending, say, more visible decommissioning and confirmation finally that "the war is over". Mr Trimble after all forced the first suspension, and resigned office last year to ensure the second. Senior Sinn Féin figures, indeed, suspect he has already made up his mind to force a third. "I've shown I have a bottom line, and can do so again," he once declared famously.
The British government, it seems, watches these intrigues with a growing sense of despair. Some in Dublin might just fancy that the DUP might emerge the dominant force in unionism better able to make a new deal stick. Their opposite numbers in Whitehall admit to no such expectations. "I think we're in the s*** without David," confided one senior British source this week.
But might he see Mr Trimble survive and still find himself up to his neck in it?