Trends in Limerick East confound bookmakers

The Limerick East by-election is confusing even the bookmakers. The Paddy Power chain has shocked some local observers by making Fianna Fail only 5 to 1 to win the seat, behind Fine Gael (slight favourites at 11/10), Labour (6/5) and Democratic Left (4/1).

But local bookies are more cautious.

"A three-girl race" is how Des Fitzgerald characterised it at his shop in Upper William Street yesterday, where Sandra Marsh (FF), Mary Jackman (FG) and Jan O'Sullivan (Lab) were all on offer at 6 to 4.

"All the money is on Jan O'Sullivan," he said.

"We were offering 7/2 against her, but we got hit badly last weekend. So we brought her in and we eased Jackman out from even money. We had opened Sandra Marsh at 1/2 favourite, but there was no money on her, so now we're giving the same odds on them all. But I still think Marsh will top the poll."

With most experts now predicting a cliff-hanger, the weather could yet decide the outcome. It is generally accepted that rain will be bad news for the left-wing candidates and, canvassing in the sodden streets of St Mary's Park yesterday, DL's John Ryan was conscious of the problem.

"Not as many of our voters have cars, but we have contingency plans to get them out anyway," he said. Buoyed by the news that Paddy Power considered him more likely to win than Sandra Marsh, Ryan claimed it would be no surprise if Fianna Fail's vote collapsed: "Willie O'Dea has 6,000 left-wing votes - they're not Fianna Fail supporters at all."

The DL man claims his own support in the large working-class estates of Moyross and Southill runs as high as 70 per cent. But with turn-out at the last general election as low as 30 per cent in these areas, tapping that support on Wednesday will be a problem.

The candidate was accompanied in St Mary's Park by Proinsias De Rossa, and both received a warm welcome in an area where Ryan has strong family connections. One of his cousins, Anne Joyce, hosted a tea party to celebrate the De Rossa visit and the indoor event was a welcome respite from the weather.

Rain on Wednesday should be good news for the Progressive Democrats, but it wasn't when they canvassed the city's Glasgow Park estate on Thursday night in miserable conditions.

Glasgow Park is a prime example of why local issues and local cross-currents between candidates will decide this election. A bluecollar estate, it should not be fruitful territory for the PDs, but the party's involvement in local problems has given it an entree here.

The outstanding problem is the appalling state of the houses.

The flat-roofed, cube-shaped homes, visible from the Dublin-Limerick train, are some of the worst examples of 1970s house construction. Leaking and rotting for years, they are now being transformed by an interest-free loan scheme begun under the last Government and being overseen by the PDs' Bobby Molloy in this one.

The candidate, Tim O'Malley, has also been closely involved with the scheme, and the message that the party had the ear of Government was being hammered home on the doorsteps, especially of the homes yet to be approved for refurbishment.

The PD canvass went well, with Senator Helen Keogh claiming "a vote in every house". But, if the bookmakers are to be believed, you can have between 20 and 33 to 1 on the PD candidate; O'Malley's role will be to help decide which of the other candidates wins.

The only opinion poll of the campaign so far suggested that the PD transfers would be widely dispersed and even John Ryan - who is openly admiring of O'Malley's role as a councillor - believes he will benefit.

Nevertheless, the Taoiseach - at the start of a two-day visit to Limerick yesterday - said he hoped the Government parties would transfer to each other. Mr Ahern, who opened new Rehab offices in the city, said the message was going out that "if we win the seat, it's a victory for the Government, and if we lose the seat, it's a defeat for the Government".