The Celtic Tiger: Ireland's Economic Miracle Explained by Paul Sweeney Oak Tree Press 230pp, £12.95
A Rocky Road: The Irish Economy Since the 1920s by Cormac O Grada Manchester 246pp, £13.99 in UK
In the first of these two books, SIPTU economist and leading Democratic Left member, Paul Sweeney, sets out to explain the elements which have led to Ireland's recent economic success and examines the likelihood of it continuing. His account is highly optimistic: after many decades of failure we have finally come up with the right mix of policies which are resulting in a remarkable economic transformation, one likely to be sustained for the foreseeable future.
However, while the book repeats these assertions again and again, Sweeney fails to engage with some of the more troubling questions about Ireland's "Celtic Tiger" status. He either avoids some key issues altogether or else he fails to appreciate the extent to which some of the problems he does acknowledge (such as growing poverty and inequality) pose fundamental questions about the nature of the Irish development model.
The very term "Celtic Tiger" is based on the premise that we have been an underdeveloped country which is now, finally, graduating to a new league, that of the developed countries. Many developing countries have had sustained periods of economic growth (often fuelled by inward investment by the multinationals) but few have managed to build sustainable native capacity (technological, institutional, managerial, industrial) and growing social equality through income redistribution, the hallmarks of success. The key question facing Ireland is whether we belong to the first or to the second of these groups.
Unfortunately, Sweeney jumps to conclusions on the basis of very partial evidence. Thus, he concludes we are similar to the East Asian Tigers largely on the basis of a few years of high GDP growth. While acknowledging that most of the success of the Irish economy is due to a small number of growth sectors (computers, pharmaceuticals, chemicals), all deriving from multinationals, he draws the most optimistic conclusions possible from this. An equally plausible conclusion is that our whole economic success is extremely vulnerable to international downturns in these sectors.
Some of the weakest sections in the book relate to indigenous industry. He overstates completely the spill-over effects of multinational investment in indigenous industry, thus avoiding what remains the greatest weakness of Irish industrialisation - the typical Third World dualism between a dynamic multinational sector and a weak indigenous sector. In another chapter of the book, Sweeney also overstates the extent to which new flexible work practices are widespread in Ireland. For example, as a source of this assertion he quotes an OECD report by Columbia law professor, Charles Sabel. Yet Sabel's conclusions were themselves an over-interpretation of a survey done by DCU economist, David Jacobson.
Perhaps the most revealing part of this book is chapter seven. Here Sweeney acknowledges that poverty and inequality have been growing alongside our economic success. This he laments and argues that redistribution through radical tax reform is needed. Yet he is not hopeful that this is going to happen because of "a stasis in tackling urgent problems". This acknowledgment does not seem to dent Sweeney's faith in the Celtic Tiger.
Professor Cormac O Grada's economic history of Ireland since the 1920s takes a far more sober view than does Paul Sweeney of the extent to which Ireland may finally have overcome in persistent problems of economic underdevelopment. He surveys the main areas of the Irish economy - industry, agriculture, services - while offering chapters also on demography and on "poverty, employment and institutions". This last is the most disappointing in the book, concentrating mostly on the urban-rural divide and failing to devote adequate attention to the trend towards greater social inequality.
The text is highly informative, offering a wealth of statistical information enlivened by anecdotal evidence. The extensive use of cartoons from Dublin Opinion further lighten the text, making the book a very enjoyable read. For all its merits, however, it remains too much at the level of narrative and fails to engage adequately with the deeper issues raised by Ireland's economic performance since independence. For example, the author promises a comparative perspective but makes no attempt to compare Ireland with groups of countries with a similar development trajectory - East Asia or Latin America.
O Grada concludes that "only time can tell" whether our present success is just a temporary aberration or whether beneath the seeming lethargy and gridlock of an earlier period the social conditions for high economic growth were being created. This draws our attention to the urgent need for more sustained and searching analysis of our distinctive development path. Whether we are enthusiasts for or sceptics of the Celtic Tiger, these two books show that far more thorough interpretative work is required to understand what got us to where we are and where we are likely to go from here.
Peadar Kirby is a lecturer in the School of Communications, DCU