A severe test of the North's stability is imminent, writes Gerry Moriarty, Northern Editor
The Eleventh Night bonfires will blaze around Northern Ireland tonight and tomorrow in anticipation of the Twelfth of July commemorations. By the time the last of the embers die out this weekend the hope is that Northern Ireland will have avoided another sectarian conflagration.
Tensions are beginning to mount, exacerbated by last Sunday's violence at Drumcree. There are nationalists and loyalists out there spoiling for a fight tomorrow. Others are calling for cool heads.
There are 18 Orange Order parades tomorrow plus numerous other feeder parades, which can sometimes be more contentious than the main parades.
How Northern Ireland fares this difficult weekend will have implications for politics and the Belfast Agreement, as well as for community relations and the economy.
Yesterday the Enterprise Minister, Sir Reg Empey (UUP), said the American-owned call centre, TeleTech, could withdraw from Belfast. Established at the interface of Duncairn Gardens, it employs 300 with the promise of 1,000 later.
Belfast and Drumcree are the chief flashpoints tomorrow, although it could also be tricky in areas such as Newtownhamilton in Co Armagh, Newry in Co Down and Kilrea in Co Derry.
The police felt sufficiently confident to scale down the level of security at Drumcree yesterday, but say this can be reversed in minutes if trouble flares again. They hope the reduced security presence will bring a reduction in trouble at Drumcree.
Belfast is the big worry. Flashpoints are Ardoyne in north Belfast; the Whiterock in west Belfast; Short Strand in east Belfast; and the Lower Ormeau in south Belfast.
There was heavy rioting in Ardoyne last year when nationalists clashed with the RUC while Orangemen made their return journey through north Belfast on the Twelfth evening. There is great potential for a similar incident tomorrow.
Some local republicans tried to destroy a closed-circuit TV camera erected by police high over Ardoyne, prompting a security operation in the area yesterday.
Orangemen parade through the nationalist Whiterock tomorrow, the scene of rioting during a similar parade almost two weeks ago. Police then blamed local nationalists for withdrawing stewards before police had time themselves to withdraw from the area.
Ms Frances McAuley of the Springfield Residents' Action Group said yesterday that local nationalists were so incensed at the Parades Commission's decision to allow the feeder parades in the morning and evening that it would not provide stewards tomorrow to marshal protests.
She said trouble was almost inevitable but insisted that if it happened no responsibility would lie with the Springfield residents' group.
It sounded similar to previous cases where the Orange Order has insisted it has no responsibility for violence erupting at some of its parades.
There is a whiff of dangerous buck-passing here.
But last week at Hillsborough the likes of Mr Gerry Adams and Mr David Ervine, who have more influence in this area than most, pledged that they would do their utmost to dampen down sectarian tensions.
Tomorrow will be a big test of whether these parties can and will exert this influence.