NORTH KOREA’S neighbours set about establishing the extent of the new security threat posed by the secretive Stalinist state after it defiantly launched a long-range rocket on Sunday, while the United Nations failed to find a unified response to the action, despite pressure from Washington and Tokyo.
Tensions remain high in north Asia after the launch and regional security analysts are in no doubt that the first successful blast-off of North Korea’s Taepodong-2 rocket was a test of a ballistic missile designed to carry a warhead as far as the west coast of the United States.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-il reportedly attended the launch himself. The rocket flew over Japan during its 3,200km flight. South Korea and the US say it did not reach orbit, although Pyongyang claims a satellite is now circling the world beaming down revolutionary songs.
Regardless of whether it made it into space or not, North Korea has made its point, as the last time it tried to launch a Taepodong-2, in 2006, it exploded 40 seconds after take-off. The rocket is designed to fly 6,700km, which theoretically renders the entire region unsafe, and much of the US west coast. Pyongyang is now likely to use the success of the launch to leverage concessions at regional talks on North Korea’s nuclear ambitions.
The talks involving both Koreas, the US, China, Russia and Japan have been stalled since December. The agenda is likely to be different at the next round now that the North has proved it has nuclear capabilities, evidenced by a nuclear test in 2006, and the means of delivering a warhead, seen by the weekend launch.
The North may seek further concessions from the other parties at the talks, particularly on economic aid, and may also try to roll back some aspects already agreed on.
Japan called for the emergency UN Security Council meeting on Sunday, but no agreement could be reached, other than to have more talks.
The US, Japan and South Korea insist the launch violated security council rules banning the firing of ballistic missiles by Pyongyang, imposed after a nuclear test and other missile exercises in 2006.
However, Russia and China have both urged calm and are not convinced the launch violated security council resolutions.
The situation is awkward for China, North Korea’s only significant ally. For most people in China, North Korea is considered a little brother, and the Chinese leadership does not want a destabilised North Korea sending thousands of refugees across its borders.
Beijing is also keen to maintain its position as honest broker in the six-party talks.
Most South Koreans are used to dealing with the North and tend to shrug off signs of escalation of hostilities across the demilitarised zone that separates the bitter rivals, even though the North Koreans once threatened to turn Seoul into a “sea of fire”.
The JoongAng Ilbo Daily said in an editorial that Seoul needed to review how it organised its military, which has generally focused on fighting a possible conventional war with North Korea.
“North Korea’s rocket launch has shifted the security landscape on the Korean peninsula because we must accept the reality that it is capable of launching inter- continental ballistic missiles,” the JoongAng Ilbo said in an editorial.
A poll in Yomiuri newspaper showed that 88 per cent of Japanese were uneasy about North Korea’s missile development, and there have been calls for a debate on whether Japan should try and pre-emptively destroy North Korea’s nuclear capabilities.
Both Washington and Tokyo want existing embargoes on arms and financial sanctions better enforced, and possibly expanded.
The rocket launch will help shore up support for Mr Kim, particularly among the military establishment, which is hugely powerful in North Korea.
The impoverished country has the fourth largest army in the world.