Suspension of institutions still not an agreed option

There is no formal agreement yet between the British government and the Ulster Unionists that suspension will follow the threatened…

There is no formal agreement yet between the British government and the Ulster Unionists that suspension will follow the threatened withdrawal of unionist ministers from Northern Ireland's power-sharing Executive.

This became clear last night after talks between the Prime Minister, Mr Tony Blair, and the UUP leader, Mr David Trimble, at Downing Street apparently failed to offer any fresh hope of an immediate breakthrough on the decommissioning of IRA weapons.

And the question of what specific next steps to take in the political process will now dominate what may prove to be a difficult meeting between Mr Trimble and the Northern Ireland Secretary, Dr John Reid, in London this afternoon.

Dr Reid has shown a strong aversion to formal suspension of the institutions established under the Good Friday accord during the months since Mr Trimble's resignation as First Minister on July 1st.

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Mr Trimble and the DUP leader, the Rev Ian Paisley, are poised to withdraw their five ministers from the Executive in the aftermath of Monday's Assembly vote on the doomed UUP motion to exclude Sinn FΘin from ministerial office.

They now appear jointly determined that the Executive and Assembly should then be suspended, paving the way for a formal review of the Belfast Agreement, almost certainly by the end of next week.

For at least technical reasons it seems Mr Trimble and Dr Paisley, as the original nominating officers, will have to effectively dismiss their parties' ministers, since Assembly rules require them to tender their resignations to the First and Deputy First Ministers, or persons "acting" in those roles, and all such posts are effectively vacant.

The indications are that Mr Trimble and Dr Paisley plan to withdraw their ministers on Tuesday, unless there is an actual start to IRA decommissioning in the meantime.

At the Labour Party conference in Brighton yesterday Dr Reid echoed Mr Blair's insistence that an IRA ceasefire was "not enough" and that "weapons must be put beyond use to bring violence to an end for good".

The Irish Government was still officially "hopeful" that the IRA might further advance its position on the arms issue.

However, sources privately admitted that the tabling of the unionist motion to exclude Sinn FΘin - which will fail for lack of cross-community support from the SDLP - meant, as one put it, that "we are probably running out of road".

Senior Sinn FΘin figures on the Brighton conference fringe this week have also appeared convinced that the process is headed for a formal review under the provisions of the 1998 accord.

Dr Reid received a standing ovation yesterday when it fell to him to conclude the conference in the same solemn mood in which it began on Sunday, in anticipation of imminent British military engagement in the US-led fight against global terror.

Dr Reid said that in Northern Ireland a recognition of the futility of violence had opened the door for a dialogue which may be "faltering" and "imperfect" but nonetheless represented a beginning.

Ultimately, however, he told conference, "we all face a stark choice - the ballot box or the bomb and the bullet". He declared: "There is no mix-and-match agenda in democracy."

After his meeting with Mr Blair, Mr Trimble said his concern was to ensure "a soft landing" for the process next week "if, as seems likely because of the (Assembly) debate, it is not possible to continue with the administration".

Mr Trimble also called on the British government "to do everything they can to give assurance to the community in Northern Ireland that a serious effort is being made to maintain the rule of law".

He urged Mr Blair to take the same strong line on terrorism at home as abroad.

The UUP leader insisted: "What should be done is to go to the sources of the money, go to the rackets that generate the money, drugs which generate the money, drugs which generate the money for the Taliban and Osama bin Laden, the drugs that support Farc in Colombia, the drugs that support the paramilitaries, republican and loyalist in Northern Ireland."