Surprise poll gives Merkel chance to regain power in most populous state

Voters in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany’s most populous state, will head to the polls in a snap election after yesterday’s surprise collapse of the regional government.

The Social Democrat (SPD)-Green minority administration was unable to pass its budget yesterday, after the opposition Free Democrats (FDP) withheld its support.

The NRW poll has given Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU) an unexpected chance to win back power of Germany’s industrial heartland, home to nearly 18 million people.

The battle for power in Düsseldorf will serve for all political parties as a barometer of their fortunes before the autumn 2013 general election. Most recent poll shows the SPD and CDU both on 33 per cent, the Greens on 17 per cent and the FDP, traditional CDU coalition partners, flatlining on two per cent.

Though state elections are usually won and lost on local issues, a North Rhine-Westphalia election is always a big deal and strategically important now for two reasons.

First: it could reweight the balance of power in the upper house, the Bundesrat. Chancellor Merkel no longer has a majority here and the NRW vote could influence how much or little horse-trading she has to do with rival parties to secure the necessary majority for the looming ESM bailout bill.

Second: the NRW vote will be the first electoral test of Dr Merkel’s environment minister Norbert Röttgen, 47, as state CDU leader and one of two potential successors to Chancellor Merkel.