Six left-wing contenders to challenge Sarkozy managed not to fall out on prime-time television, writes RUADHÁN Mac CORMAICin Paris
FOR A party keen to project unity after the trauma of so many campaigns undone by internal rivalries, it was a big risk. Six candidates, representing different factions and strands of French left-wing opinion, debating for three hours on prime-time television, each vying for the right to challenge Nicolas Sarkozy in the 2012 presidential election.
But the Socialist Party (PS) was in celebratory mood yesterday after the first televised debate of its primary contest – itself a first in French politics – turned out to be civil, substantive and, most unexpected of all, a ratings winner. Some 4.9 million people – 22 per cent of the available audience – watched the debate, beating a popular reality-style cookery show into second place.
As always in the public psychodrama of PS politics, plots and sub-plots abounded. Would François Hollande, whose physical and political make-overs have helped make him the frontrunner, hold his lead? Could his nearest rival Martine Aubry make up the ground? How would Hollande debate against his ex-partner and the wife of his four children, Ségolène Royal? And what of the outsiders Manuel Valls and Arnaud Montebourg, the ideological wingtips on the right and left of the party, respectively? Most of all, would they tear each other up so badly that the night’s winner would be none other than Sarkozy himself?
Clear policy differences separate the six candidates, but the debate was striking for the degree of consensus on the major economic questions. There was general agreement on the need to reduce France’s huge deficit. Hollande, having occupied the social democratic terrain vacated by Dominique Strauss-Kahn, said he would balance the budget by 2017. In a country that hasn’t had a surplus since 1974, that would be a tall order. “Impossible,” said Aubry. She would cut the deficit to 3 per cent of GDP by 2013.
Nobody mentioned nationalisation, but several candidates wanted greater state intervention in the banks. Montebourg called for a ban on banks speculating with savers’ money and for “de-globalisation” to protect French manufacturers.
Another unspoken word was austerity. Hollande wanted 66,000 new teachers, Aubry would create 100,000 new jobs in her first year. None specified any cuts, noting instead their party manifesto’s pledge to raise €50-75 billion by ending tax loopholes and credits. “I would not raise taxes,” Royal said.
The first round of the socialist primary takes place on October 9th, and anyone who pays €1 and signs a charter of “left-wing values” can vote. If no candidate has a majority in the first round, a play-off between the best-placed pair will take place a week later.
Hollande holds a commanding lead, with an Ifop poll before the debate giving him 60 per cent – well ahead of Aubry on 35 per cent. Aubry had to put in a strong performance. To that end, she sprang a few surprises. While Hollande trumpeted his promise to reduce the proportion of electricity France generates from nuclear power from 75 per cent to 50 per cent by 2025, Aubry suddenly announced she would scrap nuclear altogether.
“If nuclear is dangerous, then let’s get out of it,” she said, calling nuclear “an energy of the past”. In one swoop she wrong-footed Hollande and spoke directly to the Green Party’s ample base of left-wing voters.
Aubry broke ranks again later, supporting decriminalising cannabis consumption – an idea rejected by all the other socialist candidates, with the two youngest ones (Valls and Montebourg) strongest in their opposition.
Valls has cultivated his image as a hard-nosed, Blair-style realist. He raised crime and immigration, seen as uncomfortable topics for the PS, saying he was in favour of immigration quotas and was “the guarantor of security”.
Socialists are conscious of how destructive internecine fighting was for Ségolène Royal against Sarkozy in 2007 and don’t intend to repeat it. “It was a debate that gave a fine impression of politics, and of the Socialist Party. We spoke about the problems French people face with seriousness, gravity and, I think, a lot of courtesy,” Aubry said.
The party faces a formidable incumbent in the Élysée. But its buoyancy will be tested sooner by someone else. Tomorrow, Dominique Strauss-Kahn is expected to give a TV interview to address the French people for the first time since his arrest in New York on charges of sexual assault. Just when the socialists thought they had emerged from the shadow of l’affaire DSK, it returns to prime-time television.