Short, sharp, reality check for central players in decommissioning deadlock

The British Prime Minister, Mr Tony Blair, arrived in Belfast to impose a short, sharp, reality check on the central players to the tortuous deadlock over decommissioning and the formation of an executive.

And did he succeed? Well, as Mr Blair said in response to a question from a student yesterday, "that depends". We may know by June 30th. Then again, we may not.

Kosovo he could handle. The Northern peace process and Drumcree, now that's much more problematic.

Mr Blair didn't bother with the "hand of history on his shoulder" routine. Instead, he delivered a passionate and blunt speech to students at Stranmillis College which reflected his exasperation at the inability or unwillingness of the Ulster Unionist Party and Sinn Fein to strike a compromise.

He flew into Northern Ireland to knock heads together. In essence he went over the heads of the politicians. He spoke to the students. He spoke to much of the population via the radio and television. Separately - naturally - he spoke to Portadown Orangemen and Garvaghy Road residents about Drumcree. And he spoke to David Trimble and Seamus Mallon.

Ahead of the direct approach with the politicians in the next two weeks he was trying to galvanise the general public into exerting their will to see the Belfast Agreement implemented, or at least that element of the public still supporting the deal.

David Trimble and Seamus Mallon trotted out the most recent buzz word, "sequencing", but that can mean different things to different folk. Seamus Mallon seemed to interpret the British Prime Minister as suggesting that the executive be formed first and then IRA disarmament would follow.

David Trimble was reading Mr Blair's remarks the other way round: first guns, then government for Martin McGuinness and Bairbre de Brun. Flip the coin again and you had Gerry Adams' analysis of what Mr Blair was telling us: Sinn Fein in the executive without preconditions.

Mr Blair, by appealing directly to the people, was hoping to persuade David Trimble and Gerry Adams of the need for flexibility, but it was a commodity in short supply yesterday.

Still, there's a fortnight to go to June 30th, and two weeks is a long time ...

The Prime Minister also had a message for Ian Paisley. The Doc may have topped the Euro poll but Mr Blair was unimpressed.

The European result was not a second referendum on the Belfast Agreement. And even if there were a new referendum, last year's result wouldn't change. And anyway, "we don't need another referendum".

The agreement was a good deal for both sides. If it went down, its opponents had nothing to put in its place. Dr Paisley and his friends had no alternative.

"They prefer Northern Ireland the way it was. It was simpler. No one had to make hard choices. No one had to listen to talk of betrayal from their own supporters. No one had to speak to people they didn't like. We all just stayed in our little boxes and attacked the others. And Northern Ireland became a symbol for outdated religious conflict," said Mr Blair.

This infuriated the No camp. Nigel Dodds of the DUP likened these remarks to Harold Wilson's complaints of Northern "spongers" after that other great experiment, the Sunningdale executive, collapsed.

Mr Blair however, hero of Kosovo, was holding the line: "The agreement must be implemented," he said, underlining the word must. He'll use the next two weeks to try to impose his will. But whether Northern Ireland will prove as amenable as Serbia to tough persuasion, now that depends.