ISRAEL: Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon was last night meeting those members in his ruling Likud Party who still support him and his Gaza withdrawal plan a day after he was humiliated in parliament, in no small measure due to his own party.
The gathering is likely to give the Prime Minister an opportunity to vent his anger after parliament voted against his speech, which mentioned his withdrawal plan, at the opening of the winter session. The vote is usually a symbolic one - with no practical ramifications - that the Prime Minister never loses. However, at least a quarter of his 40-member Likud faction did not turn up to vote because of their opposition to his plan to evacuate Jewish settlements.
Mr Sharon was to seek the advice of his supporters last night. However, he is unlikely to garner any magic formulas from those present that will help him to unlock his growing political predicament: he heads a minority coalition after a far-right party bolted earlier this year when the government approved his plan to evacuate all 21 settlements in Gaza and four in the northern West Bank; his own party is increasingly turning on him; and another right-wing party in his coalition is vacillating and could leave the government if the Knesset approves the Gaza plan, which Mr Sharon has said he will bring to a vote in parliament on October 25th.
Despite the growing sense within parliament that Mr Sharon will have no choice but to go to the polls in a national election some time next year, the Prime Minister says he is not contemplating an early ballot. He knows there is no guarantee he will be the Likud candidate for prime minister in those elections. The disaffection in his own party could fuel a leadership challenge by his main Likud rival, Finance Minister Mr Benjamin Netanyahu, who has given qualified support to the withdrawal plan but has staked out a more hardline position than the Prime Minister.
If, however, Mr Sharon's standing continues to erode, he might be forced to hold an early election. In that case, he will try to get his withdrawal plan passed in parliament later this month - not an impossibility considering he is likely to have the support of the opposition Labour Party - and then run on an "Out of Gaza" platform.
Mr Sharon also reiterated his objection yesterday to calls for a national referendum on his plan to leave Gaza. It's a case of once burned, twice shy: in early May, after holding a seemingly insurmountable double-digit lead in the opinion polls, he was resoundingly defeated in a referendum among Likud members on his plan.
Opinion polls regularly show over 60 per cent of the public want to leave Gaza, but Mr Sharon understands that were he to lose a national referendum, his political career would effectively be over.
If the Prime Minister's options continue to narrow, however, he could still opt for a referendum - rather than a national election - knowing that a victory would extinguish much of the right-wing opposition to his plan, especially inside his Likud Party.
The Israeli leader's preference, for now, is to expand his coalition. His desired partner is centre-left Labour, which strongly supports the idea of leaving Gaza. But in another vote he lost several weeks ago inside his party, Likud central committee members decided to bar the Prime Minister from continuing coalition negotiations with Labour aimed at constructing a national unity government.
Mr Sharon is a canny political survivor, who has often been underestimated by his opponents. But with the odds rapidly shortening on his surviving until an election in 2006, another scenario is being sketched. Called "The Big Bang", it entails the creation of a broad centrist party in Israel, including moderate Likud members, Labour lawmakers, and members of the centrist Shinui party, to be headed by Mr Sharon and Labour leader Mr Peres.
If Mr Sharon becomes increasingly desperate, is forced to go to elections and fears he may be jilted by his own party, this could become an option.