SERBIA: One of the few people likely to regard the results of the first round of voting for a new Serbian president with grim satisfaction this morning is Mr Slobodan Milosevic, the overthrown Yugoslav leader now on trial in The Hague.
The former Balkan strongman has reason to be cheerful. Although the front-runner with 31.5 per cent, was Mr Vojislav Kostunica, the man who replaced Mr Milosevic as Yugoslav President after the popular revolt two years ago, he is not the West's favourite candidate and the overall results indicate an uncomfortably large following for the old regime and lingering mistrust of capitalism.
Second place in Sunday's voting went to Mr Miroljub Labus, an economist who advocates swift market reforms and is the West's favourite candidate. But with 27.8 per cent, he was tailed uncomfortably closely by the man Mr Milosevic asked Serbs to vote for from his prison cell - ultra-nationalist Mr Volislav Seselj. He swept up an astonishing 22.3 per cent of the vote, far in excess of predictions that he might get 13 per cent.
Many Serbs feel that his strong showing is at least partly due to the country's unhappiness at the Hague process, with even some of Mr Milosevic's bitterest opponents believing the indicted war criminal should have been tried at home. Mr Milosevic's hearing is broadcast live on television here and many think the UN war crimes tribunal is biased against Serbs.
Mr Seselj is so nationalistic that in 1999 he even branded Mr Milosevic a traitor for capitulating to NATO over Kosovo, and the UN this summer banned him from campaigning in the southern province. It was no surprise that Mr Seselj (pronounced Sheshell), leader of the Serbian Radical Party, garnered most support in Kosovo, where he came top, and in Mr Milosevic's old heartland of southern Serbia.
A big source of comfort for Mr Milosevic is also likely to be the knowledge that the entire election process is still in ferment and that it has not led to the clear-cut separation from the past that Western leaders would have liked.
Just 57.8 per cent of Serbia's 6.5 million voters bothered to turn out at the weekend, compared with around 75 per cent at the September, 2000 poll which led to Mr Milosevic's demise. Second-round voting has traditionally been lower than in the opening bout. Unless at least 50 per cent go to the polls for the next round on October 13th, the election will be declared invalid and the process will have to start again - a prospect which fills politics-weary Serbs with dismay.
Election officials were keen to emphasise yesterday that the combined vote for Mr Kostunica and Mr Labus showed overwhelming support for the forces of democracy, and opposition to any remnants of the Milosevic era. However, Mr Kostunica vigorously opposed the handing over of Mr Milosevic to The Hague tribunal and has frequently attacked the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia in 1999.
His stance on The Hague led to a bitter and lasting rift with the Serbian Prime Minister, Mr Zoran Djindjic, who organised the Milosevic surrender to the tribunal.
Mr Kostunica also wants a far slower pace of economic change than that advocated by Mr Labus.
Hundreds of thousands of Serbs will have to lose their jobs as the country catches up with western Europe, especially those in the old state-run industries and for them, the more slowly this is done the better. Mr Kostunica's softly-softly approach, therefore, appeals to those Serbs who voted for Mr Seselj out of fear of the future. Their votes in the next round are, therefore, likely to go to Mr Kostunica.