EU: The Taoiseach returns from Tokyo tonight to face days of intense telephone diplomacy in an effort to find an agreed candidate to succeed Mr Romano Prodi as president of the European Commissio, writes Denis Staunton.
Mr Ahern said yesterday there was "no panic" in the search for a candidate and he has made clear that he will only convene a meeting of EU leaders next Tuesday once they have reached a consensus.
There is little doubt that the Taoiseach would like to resolve the issue before handing over the Irish presidency to the Netherlands next Thursday. Failure to do so would take a little of the shine off the triumph of Ireland's EU presidency, and the search for a new Commission president is unlikely to become easier as time goes on.
According to EU convention, Mr Prodi's successor should be a centre-right politician from a small member-state, preferably a serving or former prime minister. The centre-right European People's Party (EPP), the largest group in the European Parliament, has threatened to vote against any candidate who is not from within its political "family".
Most EU diplomats believe that all Socialist candidates, who include the EU's foreign policy chief, Mr Javier Solana, and the Justice and Home Affairs Commissioner, Mr Antonio Vitorino, face an insurmountable obstacle.
Two of the candidates under discussion - Denmark's Prime Minister, Mr Anders Fogh Rasmussen, and the President of the European Parliament, Mr Pat Cox - are Liberals. Denmark's absence from the euro-zone and its support for the US-led war in Iraq mean that Mr Rasmussen is unlikely to succeed.
Mr Cox has always regarded his best hope of securing the job as emerging as the least offensive candidate, and it is too early to write off his chances of becoming a last-minute compromise choice.
Three candidates belong to the EPP "family": Austria's Chancellor, Mr Wolfgang Schüssel; Portugal's Prime Minister, Mr José Manuel Durao Barroso; and the former attorney general and EU commissioner, Mr Peter Sutherland.
Mr Schüssel's decision in 2000 to share power with a far-right party, which led to a six-month boycott by other EU leaders, makes him unacceptable to a number of member-states, including France and Belgium. He enjoys the support of many small states, however and was the first choice of Italy's Prime Minister, Mr Silvio Berlusconi.
Mr Barroso's role in organising a meeting of pro-war leaders on the Azores before the Iraq war counts against him and his part in the campaign to block the Belgian Prime Minister, Mr Guy Verhofstadt, last week could cost him further support.
Mr Sutherland's candidacy, which the Taoiseach has been promoting for a number of weeks, emerged into the open this week, although the chairman of BP and Goldman Sachs said yesterday he would only accept the job if he received the backing of all EU governments.
Mr Sutherland was a much-admired competition commissioner during the 1980s, and as a former head of the World Trade Organisation he has experience of leading an international organisation. Although he has been away from Brussels for 15 years, Mr Sutherland, who is a keen European integrationist, retains a close interest in EU affairs.
Opposition to him could focus on his robust advocacy of free market economic policies and some on the political Left could baulk at the prospect of a Commission president drawn from Europe's business elite. A prominent figure at such elite gatherings as the Trilateral Commission, the World Economic Forum and the Bilderberg group, Mr Sutherland is a master networker of immense personal charm.
French sources suggested yesterday Paris now accepts that Mr Prodi's successor will be drawn from the centre-right and that an Irish candidate would be acceptable, despite the State's position outside the Schengen border-free area.
Some diplomats suggest that Paris and Berlin still hold out hope that Luxembourg's Mr Jean-Claude Juncker will ultimately agree to take the job, but the Irish presidency remains convinced that Mr Juncker is determined to stay in Luxembourg.
A German diplomatic source said yesterday the Taoiseach "would only have to lift his finger" to secure the backing of all EU leaders, if he wants the position himself. Government sources continue to insist that Mr Ahern wants to stay in Dublin, but acknowledge that the pressure from other leaders to accept the job could become too great to resist.
An EPP spokesman yesterday repeated a warning that the group would reject Mr Ahern if he was nominated but the former Taoiseach, Mr John Bruton, suggested Mr Ahern would be acceptable if no EPP candidate won the necessary support among EU leaders.
Mr Ahern starts his consultations tomorrow but will be preoccupied on Friday with talks on Northern Ireland and with the visit of President Bush on Saturday. He will resume consultations on Sunday and travel on Monday to Istanbul, where most EU leaders will attend a NATO summit.
If the leaders agree on a candidate, they will meet in Brussels on Tuesday evening to make a formal endorsement and introduce the next Commission president to Europe's media.