Samaranch is expected to give Olympics to Beijing

This morning in the Congress Hall of Moscow's World Trade Centre a familiar ceremony unfolds in unusual circumstances

This morning in the Congress Hall of Moscow's World Trade Centre a familiar ceremony unfolds in unusual circumstances. Mr Juan Antonio Samaranch, performing the last public act of his long, controversial presidency of the International Olympic Committee, will announce the host city for the 2008 Games.

If insiders are right, we shall see not the ticker tape and balloons which marked the recent selections of Atlanta, Sydney and Athens but quiet satisfied smiles from the Beijing contingent. In a race which has been whittled down to five contenders, Beijing, Paris, Toronto, Osaka and Istanbul, the Chinese capital has always been the favourite. For Mr Samaranch it is payback time. Beijing's loss at this stage by two votes to Sydney for the right to host the 2000 Games was seen as a personal defeat for him.

Since then he has found himself weakened by corruption and drug scandals within his committee. On Monday the IOC will elect Mr Samaranch's replacement. Today it will decide whether he leaves having played one last losing hand.

The race to succeed Mr Samaranch also colours this morning's vote. If Beijing were to win it would likely damage the candidacy of Mr Kim Um Yong the feisty septuagenarian from South Korea who has run hard. The IOC may be inclined to elect another president who looks as if he should be choosing from an early-bird menu near a Florida retirement home but it is unlikely to offer its two most substantial prizes to Asia in three days.

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Toronto is a front-runner in today's vote with an excellent technical bid centred on the waterfront of that impressively diverse city and Canadian IOC member Mr Dick Pound is also a contender in Monday's race.

The Canadians may also suffer the backlash due from the IOC's resentment at the criticisms it suffered at US hands in recent years. The Canadians have been protesting their independence and sovereignty but are everywhere reminded of the old joke that the only difference between Canada and the US is that Canadians think there is a difference. If Toronto stumbles badly due to the unfortunate remark of its mayor Mr Mel Lastman - who recently attributed his reluctance to lobby in Africa to fear of snakes and cannibals - Paris is considered to have closed ground with an impressive bid.