The association representing 12,500 members of the RUC has warned that the depletion of numbers through voluntary severance, unusually high absenteeism and low morale is causing "panic" among the force's management.
RUC management has issued a directive restricting leave to 5 per cent of officers during June and July this year. In previous years, even during some of the worst periods of public disorder surrounding Drumcree, the restriction on leave was kept at 10 per cent. Absenteeism attributed to sick leave is at slightly over 10 per cent. The force is also losing half its managerial ranks of chief superintendent and superintendent this year, along with 500 mostly experienced officers. A further 700 are preparing to leave before April 1st next year.
Mr Les Rodgers, chairman of the Police Federation of Northern Ireland, yesterday warned he was "fearful" for the prospects of policing in the North. The federation had been alarmed to learn of the decision by management to restrict leave further this summer.
He said: "We would say, `OK, you've had a year to plan. Why the sudden panic?' Officers deserve their leave. To go down to 5 per cent without notice is annoying. Even during the worst times at Drumcree there have been officers available.
"Obviously because of the drain on manpower this is their reaction. But they have known about this. They have known how many officers are going and what their requirements are. I think they realise if there is an upsurge in public disorder over the Drumcree period, they will need extra people. But my officers feel they are being hard done by."
Overtime had been cut but with the increase in terrorist activity again, from both republicans and loyalists, extra hours are being worked again.
However, the federation has pointed out that the RUC budget has fallen in "real terms" over the past three years, representing savings to the Treasury, it estimates, of £150 million. Mr Rodgers said he was "fearful" of what would happen if there had to be reliance on military resources to keep public order during a period of heightened tension. He said the primary cause of concern was the way in which the RUC Reserve was being treated. There are 2,555 full-time members and 1,097 part-time members. This represents around 30 per cent of the uniformed force.
Nationalist politicians are calling for the disbandment of the Reserve force and, Mr Rodgers said, the reservists are facing an uncertain future as they do not qualify for the same severance terms as regular force members, even though they worked similar hours. The reservists are on three-year contracts.
The uncertainty was causing morale problems among the reservists, he said. It was also causing a serious loss of motivation.
"If I was a Reserve man I would not be putting my head above the parapet. Indeed, I would do my duty, but that extra mile that we used to go? I think I would be very careful in what I did because my wife and my family depend on me for their livelihood."
On the potential for widespread disorder during the traditional loyalist marching season, he said: "If we get a number of serious injuries, where do we get the officers to replace them? We just don't have them. One year we actually used recruits to help out in policing. Under the new Act they won't be available because they are trainees. You can't use them.
"This [Drumcree] has been going on for some time. It is not a matter for police. It is a matter for the two communities to sit down and sort the problem out. We were only there to prevent absolute mayhem. There is no doubt in my mind that if we allowed the two of them to mingle, the dead and injured would be phenomenal.
"The police have been getting the bricks, petrol bombs, shootings from both sides. It proves we have got it right. We have been standing in the middle upholding the rule of law."
He wanted the police reservists to be treated "properly, sympathetically, and dealt with so they don't feel they are being thrown out". The government needed to recognise their worth and their service "and if there is any opportunity to give them a proper financial reward and proper retraining, then that is what we want. We want people to be treated generously and sympathetically and made an offer to recognise the value of their service.
"People think they are going to have this Utopia with a community police officer on every corner, a community police vehicle, a response vehicle and lovely walk-in stations. Given the amount of terrorist activity from the dissidents, it is a brave man who is going to say that is going to happen soon.
"No one wants peace more than ourselves, but the public have to educated. In a very short number of years we are moving from a force of 13,500 to 7,500.
"Drumcree is looming large again. Unless something can be resolved there; if we continue to lose manpower, there is going to be a shortfall. Will it be military taking over the role? In that case we will be back to square one. We seem to be moving backwards rather than forwards at times."