Reaction from Ahern and Blair seen as crucial

The Government is expected to respond later today to the report from Gen de Chastelain that IRA decommissioning has now been …

The Government is expected to respond later today to the report from Gen de Chastelain that IRA decommissioning has now been completed, in a statement that will play an important role in determining the political impact of the development.

The Independent International Commission on Decommissioning (IICD) will brief the Irish and British governments this morning on what has taken place, before announcing the details publicly at 2pm. A Government spokeswoman said last night they did not know what the report was going to say and that they were awaiting it before commenting.

The IICD told the Government yesterday afternoon that it believed decommissioning had now been completed and that it would report to the Government today in more detail. Most or all of the putting of weapons beyond use is believed to have taken place in the Republic of Ireland.

With the DUP apparently preparing to dismiss the IRA move as inadequate because of the lack of proof of what has happened, the degree to which the Irish and British governments are impressed is regarded as crucial.

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If the two governments say they are convinced that total decommissioning has taken place, as has been required by them over a long period, this will contribute to convincing large numbers in Northern Ireland that this is the case. But while Sinn Féin leaders have been talking up the scale of today's announcement, suggesting that it will be more momentous that the ceasefire declaration of 1984, any doubts within the two governments, coupled with the DUP's concerns, would be likely to further prolong the political impasse over decommissioning that has dogged the political process in Northern Ireland since before the 1998 signing of the Belfast Agreement.

Comments from Minister for Foreign Affairs Dermot Ahern yesterday indicated that the Government is expecting to respond positively later today to what it expects to be an announcement of full IRA decommissioning.

Despite speculation that the IRA may retain a small number of weapons, Mr Ahern told RTÉ's This Week programme that he expected the general to announce that "full decommissioning" had taken place.

"From everything that I've heard and from everything I've understood from our own security services, the answer to that question is yes." Mr Ahern, together with the Taoiseach and Minister for Justice Michael McDowell met Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness last Friday to discuss this week's events.

Gen de Chastelain's announcement today will ensure that the issue of IRA decommissioning and the future of the North's political process dominates the political agenda for the next week.

The Dáil is due to resume on Wednesday after its summer break and there is speculation that it will be adjourned either on Wednesday or Thursday to allow the Taoiseach, the main Opposition leaders and others to respond to Gen de Chastelain's report.