An air of optimism was detectable at NATO headquarters yesterday, despite controversy over an armed attack on a civilian bus on Monday. The alliance's spokesmen were buoyed up by a night of tremendous damage inflicted on Serbian field forces and infrastructures. General Walter Jertz said: "I am convinced we will end this by air alone." Concentrating on Yugoslav forces in the field, the night's bombing inflicted huge damage on the capability of the Serb forces. NATO says it is "degrading" them to the point where they are digging in and putting up defences. But the Serbs still managed to drive the highest number of refugees since April 2nd to the borders.
"Military experience so far, is that no air campaign has ever won a war," said Gen Klaus Naumann, who yesterday retired as chairman of the Military Committee. "This has been the most successful air campaign so far. We won superiority through high altitude. If we see a real chance we can do it this time, why should we change our strategy?" However, Gen Naumann added: "Ground troops will come, in a permissive environment, in the end." There were angry questions during the press conference as to why NATO was taking so much care to avoid Serb civilian casualties when the Serbs were treating Kosovan Albanians so appallingly. "Democracies hate war," he said, "so we must try to avoid loss of life. Out of 15,000 sorties only six went wrong and none by intent. For example, Milosevic is hiding vehicles next to houses and mosques. We don't attack them - we won't."
The accusation that NATO bombed a refugee bus on Monday has been investigated; NATO says there is no indication that it had any part in it. NATO sources told The Irish Times it is probable the bus was attacked by the KLA. This would bear out the small-arms fire type of damage that was apparent, as the KLA does not have the sophisticated shelling equipment used by the Serb forces. The bus did not sustain the kind of damage that would be caused by a bomb.
Meanwhile, the KLA insisted that the incident had been staged by Serb police. The Kosovo press agency quoted KLA fighters as saying that the bus was damaged during a NATO attack on a police base in the village. The only eyewitnesses who have spoken about the incident supported Serb claims that civilians on board the bus suffered a bomb attack.
The attack, near the village of Savine Vode, was the latest in a series of apparently mistaken dramatic attacks on civilian vehicles in Kosovo and other parts of Serbia.
Early last month at least 10 civilians were killed when NATO struck a train in southern Serbia.
Two days later up to 80 ethnic Albanians were killed when a convoy of refugees in south western Kosovo was hit. President Clinton will meet with NATO Secretary General, Mr Javier Solana, in Brussels today to discuss how the diplomatic effort can be carried forward.
But the five conditions for peace still hold. Mr Milosevic must withdraw his forces from Kosovo and stop the ethnic cleansing.