THERE is cold comfort for Gerry Adams in the latest Irish Times MRBI opinion poll which shows that only 22 per cent of the electorate would allow Sinn Fein into all-party talks without preconditions.
As Mr Adams brandished his electoral mandate and demanded admittance to next Monday's all-party talks as of right, the people of the Republic looked beyond him at the shadowy figures of the IRA and 75 per cent of them laid down varying conditions for entry to negotiations.
The nature of the public's response varied significantly from party to party, with Fianna Fail and the Labour Party reflecting the strongest republican sentiment, while Fine Gael and the Progressive Democrats opted for a more hard-nosed, democratic approach.
The most common precondition, sought by 38 per cent of those questioned, was for a simple reinstatement of the IRA cease-fire. But 17 per cent favoured the decommissioning of all IRA weapons in advance of talks. And a further 22 per cent believed in the approach of the former US senator, Mr George Mitchell, who urged the destruction of weapons in parallel with political progress.
There is plenty of evidence to suggest that the debate on the future of Northern Ireland is having a significant impact on traditionally-held views in the Republic. The Downing Street Declaration and the Framework Document embedded the principle of consent in the relationship between the two communities in the North. And, within that constraint, the people of the Republic support the rights of nationalists to a new deal.
This departure is reflected by two developments: firstly, a willingness by only 10 per cent of those questioned to accept the constitutional status quo of Northern Ireland, with its UK links; and, secondly, a reduction to 34 per cent of those who favour the traditional aspiration of a united Ireland.
The public wants radical change. It wants peace and a political settlement based on consent and parity of esteem. For the second time since the breakdown of the IRA ceasefire this year, support for a united Ireland has stayed well below 50 per cent. It is still the most popular option with the electorate, at 34 per cent. A Framework Document-type settlement, which would provide Northern Ireland links to the United Kingdom and to the Republic, commands 27 per cent support. And a further 21 per cent of those questioned believed that an independent Northern Ireland might be the solution.
Recent criticism of the Government, that it was not "green" enough in its approach to Northern Ireland, was rejected by a majority of the electorate. But 40 per cent of those questioned - 48 per cent among Fianna Fail supporters - believed the Government did not reflect nationalist opinion strongly enough. Six per cent felt the Government was too "green" and 45 per cent felt its approach was adequate.
As a balancing act in difficult circumstances, the Government seems to have got it about right. And this perception is given some credence by the positive rating of 72 per cent the Government and John Bruton received for their handling of negotiations. John Hume and the SDLP were the heroes of the hour, with a positive rating of 81 per cent. John Alderdice and Alliance rated 3,8 per cent; John Major and the British government, 27 per cent; David Trimble and the UUP 21 per cent, and Ian Paisley and the DUP came in last at 5 per cent.
With only days to go to the opening of the proposed all-party talks, the people of the Republic are sending a clear message to the IRA. The way forward is through compromise.