Pivot to FG-FF coalition partners not cut-and-dried

The Greens are full of questions at the moment.

Yesterday they posed 17 of University Challenge difficulty to Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael to answer before they will even consider going into government formation talks.

The main “red line” is a 7 per cent annual reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. Ireland’s present climate action plan is aiming for a 3.5 per cent reduction. In other words: a million electric vehicles, 500,000 home deep retrofits, 70 per cent renewable electricity, an €80 carbon tax, and the rest. At twice that, the Greens’ demand is on an even larger scale.

But there are many searching questions which have been posed internally within the Greens too. Its parliamentary party has grappled with deeply divided views on any proposed arrangement with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. The party’s publication of its response yesterday was its first public acknowledgment it might be minded to consider it.

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Covid-19 crisis

It represents a big pivot since the general election, when a Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael-Green combo was unthinkable. But then the Covid-19 crisis has effectively removed the ground from under every party.

“Everything has changed since February 8th,” says Joe O’Brien, Green TD for Dublin Fingal. “We all saw Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael as the parties that oversaw everything we vehemently opposed in relation to the environment and social issues.”

While the Greens were initially involved in detailed policy talks with opposition parties, that process was abandoned when the extent of the Covid-19 crisis became apparent. As a Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael arrangement became a reality, the party was faced with a difficult proposition.

And that has caused divisions. Nine of the 12 Green TDs are new and the party itself has also attracted droves of new members in recent years, many of them instinctively counter-establishment.

Its TDs were roughly divided into groups of four. One centred around Eamon Ryan, who has always been the most enthusiastic – even gung ho – for government. Others loosely favourable to government were Roderic O’Gorman, Ossian Smyth and Roderic O’Gorman.

The second group was reluctant to be involved in such an arrangement. It included, significantly, deputy leader Catherine Martin, Francis Duffy (Dublin South West); Patrick Costello (Dublin South Central); and Neasa Hourigan (Dublin Central).

The third group consisted of the undecideds.

A senior source in the party said it was not cut-and-dried. “There are no extremes of views. There is nobody within the parliamentary party who would be completely holding out on either side.”

Another said: “I do not think that split narrative is as accurate as some have portrayed it. We are very participatory. It is a strength if you get a consensus we are presenting a united fact to other parties.”

To overcome divisions, TDs sought for consensus. They found agreement around a unity government idea that would last for the duration of the crisis. There was no take-up on it from other parties, although most within the Greens still think it is the most sensible option.

Eye of the storm

“Call it unity or stability,” says Hourigan. “I still think it should be considered. If nothing else, the sheer size of the deficit we are facing (€25 billion) makes us realise the emergency we are in. How can we set out a programme for government for five years when we have no idea what the figures will be?

“When your house is on fire you need to deal with the crisis. A five-year plan right in the eye of the storm is very problematic on any objective level.”

Most of her colleagues agree this was the optimal option but accept that circumstances have changed. Some of their views s have also evolved.

“My position has developed a bit. I would be in the group [in the middle] that sees the merit of those who would be very eager to go into government and those who are slow,” says O’Brien.

All agreed the party’s next move will depend on how Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael respond. If they merely note the document, says one, it will be doomed to failure. If they respond in a serious and detailed way, it opens up a possible route.

“From our own perspective we need to be as ambitious as possible with the core issue,” says Noonan. “In terms of the history of the Green Party, we are in a unique position to be in a very strong position to pitch for a different way of doing things. A return to a pre-Covid world is not an option.”

Hourigan agrees on the need for radical change. “It’s more than sorting out bikes and the Luas. This is system change that’s required.”

The Greens need a two-thirds majority of the parliamentary party, and a two-thirds majority of their membership, to agree to entering a coalition arrangement.

That high bar, in normal circumstances, would have ruled out any arrangement involving Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. But then these are not normal circumstances.