Sweeping recommendations on Covid-19 restrictions will go before the Cabinet today, including closing restaurants and pubs on Christmas Eve.

The advice from the Cabinet subcommittee will be that businesses, such as hairdressers, manicurists, cinemas and galleries, should also close before Christmas. However non-essential retail is to remain open with strict guidelines on the numbers in store.

Sources said that no final decision had been made on household visits, while Cabinet will also discuss intercounty travel. The Government is examaining plans to allow people travel back to their county of residence after the 26th, but curtailing other travel elsewhere. A Government source said what would be recommended would be closer to Level 5 than Level 3.

Hospital Report

The moves follow a dramatic change of mood in Government in recent days and come in response to a surge in infections and warnings from public health experts that case numbers will rise further this week and that we are in the throes of a third wave .

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Chief Medical Officer Dr Tony Holohan wrote to Minister for Health Stephen Donnelly yesterday urging the Government to reinstate Level 5 restrictions after Christmas.

Modelling

Public health officials briefed the cabinet subcommittee yesterday evening, alongside senior civil servants, HSE chief executive Paul Reid, and the CSO, sharing modelling that suggested cases could reach between 1,300 and 1,800 per day by early January. Mr Reid is understood to have told the meeting that hospitals are coping, but that the HSE remains concerned that any surge in cases will likely have an impact on hospital capacity in January.

The meeting was told it was too early to say whether the new variant of Covid-19, which may be more infectious, is present here. Reliable information on that, and its prevalence if it is in the State, is not expected until early January.

Dr Holohan issued a stark public warning last night, saying that people should immediately stop socialising and should rethink plans for meeting vulnerable family. We are now clearly in a third wave, Prof Philip Nolan, of the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) epidemiological modelling advisory group said as Nphet reported 727 new confirmed cases last night.

Alarmed

Government Ministers and senior officials grew steadily more alarmed on Sunday and yesterday as the extent of the surge in infections became evident. The British lockdown and the French decision to close the channel ports also spooked ministers, with one senior figure suggesting that the situation was now more serious than at any time since last March. These factors have given rise to a mood in the Government for tightening restrictions immediately.

However, there was also some good news yesterday when the European Medicines Agency cleared the first Covid vaccine for use, paving the way for the first vaccinations to take place next week.The State is set to receive up to 9,750 doses of the vaccine by the end of this week after the regulator recommended conditional approval for the Pfizer BioNTech vaccine.

Ireland is in line to receive two shipments on St Stephen’s Day though that might change depending on final EU approvals.