Small parties: Opinion has it that next Wednesday's Assembly elections will go hard on the small parties.
The tendency for Independents and the likes of the Progressive Unionists and the Women's Coalition to secure fourth, fifth or the final seats makes their battle difficult. The unpredictability of turnout, transfer patterns and the fact that only one directly comparable election has been fought - in 1998 - make forecasting a perilous pastime.
An opinion poll carried out midway through the campaign for the Belfast Telegraph points to problems for the small parties. It found about 1 per cent of popular support for Mr David Ervine's Progressive Unionists (PUP), down from 2.6 per cent at the 1998 election. The UK Unionists also slipped, from 4.5 per cent in 1998, and the assembly party has fragmented since.
The Women's Coalition is sitting on 1 per cent, down from 1.6 per cent last time.
Of course, opinion polls all come with a health warning, and it must be remembered that, while polls take an average across Northern Ireland, some candidates depend entirely on pockets of local support.
Mr David Ervine, standing in East Belfast, and Mr Billy Hutchinson, in North Belfast, could be returned in their constituencies. Both took fourth seats in 1998. But they lead a team of 11 candidates standing in traditional loyalist constituencies.
Ms Jane Morrice of the Women's Coalition in North Down and her running mate, Ms Monica McWilliams in South Belfast, insist local canvass returns will defy the trends suggested by the opinion polls. The party says significant local support will benefit their five other candidates.
The Northern Ireland Unionist Party's Mr Cedric Wilson in Strangford and Mr Norman Boyd in South Antrim will similarly depend on personal support following their departure from the UKUP and the establishment of their new party.
The same also applies to the United Unionist Assembly Party, fighting the election under the title of the United Unionist Coalition. Mr Bob McCartney's UKUP, from which Mr Wilson and Mr Boyd resigned to form the NIUP, is putting up six candidates. The party leader is confident of a strong showing in North Down despite losing his Westminster seat to Lady Sylvia Hermon of the UUP in 2001. UKUP candidates are closely identified with Mr McCartney, a vociferous critic of the Belfast Agreement.
The Green Party is fielding six candidates, with well-known figures from environmental politics figuring on the list. Mr Peter Emerson, perhaps the most prominent, is standing in North Belfast. The party announced its first elected representative last month, following the decision of a local councillor to join.
The Workers' Party has eight candidates, under the campaign slogan "It won't work without the Workers' Party". Efforts are centred on young people who are disillusioned with politics and those who view themselves as neither unionist nor nationalist of any shade.
The Conservatives have nominated six candidates, each fighting on a ticket of strong objection to the proposed abolition of academic selection and the end of the 11-plus examination.