Growing tensions between Khartoum and southern Sudan could throw the region into disarray, writes JODY CLARKEin Juba
AS ANOTHER opposition party pulls out of Sudan’s first multiparty election in 24 years, Sudanese president Omar al-Bashir seems set for a comfortable win later this week.
But around Juba, the capital of the autonomous government of Southern Sudan, no one seems all that bothered. “We care more about the referendum,” said Majok Thiel (30), knocking back a Sprite by the river Nile.
“Everyone is waiting for 2011”, and the planned vote on independence for Southern Sudan next January, he said. “The Arabs don’t allow us to study in higher education, to go for international scholarships or get jobs in offices. If you go to Khartoum to join the national football team, if your name is not Muhammad you can’t play. We want to be free from this oppression.”
Walking through the city market, past people wearing “Vote SPLM”, “Salva Kiir President” and even one “Vote for Pedro” T-shirt, the message is the same. “The referendum is much more important,” said Peter Mae (49). “We have been suffering under the Arabs for a long time. God willing, we will soon be an independent country.”
The problem with this is that without an election there might be no referendum, bringing the region’s long struggle for independence to nought.
As part of the 2005 comprehensive peace agreement (CPA), which brought to an end the decades-long civil war, a specific time table of events leading up to the January 2011 referendum was drawn up. But Bashir is now threatening to suspend any vote on independence if these events, including the election, are not observed.
This has moved the country into dangerous territory, as growing tensions between the government in Khartoum and the autonomous administration in Juba could throw the entire region into disarray.
Issues such as the final demarcation of the border between the north and the south and oil revenues have yet to be finalised, and could now be more difficult to resolve given the level of distrust between the two sides. This is worrying not just the international community but members of the opposition too.
“We want the election to go ahead because there can be no referendum if there is no election. The CPA is very clear on this,” said Dr Lam Akol, one of the main opposition leaders in the south, who opposes the boycott by the Sudanese People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM), the south’s main party.
But Bashir’s threats are rich in irony, given how heavily he has meddled with the workings of the CPA already.
As the International Crisis Group said last week in a report published on the election process, Bashir’s ruling National Congress Party (NCP) “has refused to create the conditions for free and fair elections” as agreed under the CPA. It “has manipulated the census results and voter registration, drafted the election laws in its favour, gerrymandered electoral districts, co-opted traditional leaders and bought tribal loyalties”. In that respect, opposition parties in the south and the north say they have little option but to boycott the elections.
SPLM secretary general Pagan Amum announced on Wednesday that his party would not take part in governor and legislative elections in northern Sudan. The Islamist Umma Party also said it would pull out of the elections.
“We have decided to boycott the electoral process at all levels,” said Sarah Nugdalla, head of Umma’s political bureau.
Both parties have very different interests but in Bashir they have a common enemy. He and his followers have a solid grip on the organs of the state, from the police to state media, giving him an unfair advantage leading up to the elections, they claim. The international community seems to think the same, with the EU announcing this week that it was pulling its election observers out of the Darfur region over security fears.
“In some parts of Darfur the violence is terrible. The humanitarians cannot access this area. And if aid cannot access, we cannot access,” said Veronique De Keyser, who heads the EU’s election mission in the country.
She feared that her team would only get to see a small portion of the voting, opening up the possibility of an unfair vote.
For many people in Sudan, whether they are from the north or the south, voting is all they want to do. “It’s very frustrating,” said one man, sitting underneath a mango tree beside Juba’s bus stands. “I’ve never voted, so like everyone else I was looking forward to the election. Now who am I supposed to vote for? That crook Bashir?”