Party gets wake-up call as outcome upsets expectations

Sinn Féin performance/analysis: Sinn Féin had got used to winning

Sinn Féin performance/analysis:Sinn Féin had got used to winning. Now it must regroup and reorganise, writes Mark Hennessy, Political Correspondent.

Three years ago Sinn Féin believed it would have 16 TDs sitting on the Leinster House benches of the 30th Dáil.

In more recent times the predictions were lowered to 10 - less ambitious, but still significant. Most inside the political "beltway" agreed, regardless of what many will say with the benefit of hindsight.

All sides agreed on one point: that Sinn Féin's existing TDs would survive. Nobody but nobody predicted the departure of Seán Crowe in Dublin South West.

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But before noon yesterday, Sinn Féin's Dublin South Central candidate Aengus Ó Snodaigh openly admitted that he believed Crowe would lose. The reasons for his defeat will be much analysed, though there is no doubt but that he was squeezed by the late rise in Fianna Fáil support.

Sinn Féin had invested much in the campaign of MEP Mary Lou McDonald in Taoiseach Bertie Ahern's Dublin Central home patch. Not only did she not win, but she fell five percentage points behind the performance of former IRA prisoner Nicky Kehoe in the same constituency five years ago.

Her failure is a bad blow to a party that urgently needed to put high-profile people into significant positions in the Republic.

Though Kehoe had not wanted to run again, there is little doubt that he was irritated by the party's decision to parachute McDonald in without his agreement. Undoubtedly, Kehoe's unhappiness was reflected in the lack of votes for McDonald in his Cabra home turf.

The performance of Sinn Féin leader Gerry Adams during the four-way leaders' debate did little to help the party's cause among the undecided.

Clearly uncomfortable in dealing with economic and social issues in the Republic, Adams sounded cliched and programmed. And he suffered a few direct "hits" from Progressive Democrats leader Michael McDowell over his ownership of a Donegal holiday home.

Given a second chance on RTÉ's Six One News, Adams did little better, even if he did not do badly enough to drive away core support. Unusually, Adams's performance was quietly criticised by some of his own party members in the Republic.

Sinn Féin had hoped to make gains in Waterford with David Cullinane, in Wexford with John O'Dwyer, and in the two Donegal constituencies. However, the failure to make ground in Dublin - not just in Dublin Central - will come as its biggest disappointment, where Larry O'Toole and Dessie Ellis also came up short.

Last night, Adams argued that his party had suffered from Fianna Fáil's rise. But that is not the full story. Sinn Féin, triumphant in Northern Ireland, has much to do if it is to make itself a powerbroker in the Republic. More than it realised.