MIDDLE EAST: The Palestinian foreign minister, Dr Nabil Shaath, trod a delicate line yesterday between support for President Bush and Sen John Kerry. He spoke to Deaglán de Bréadún.
The Palestinian Foreign Minister, Dr Nabil Shaath, has denied reports that he endorsed the candidacy of Mr John Kerry in the US presidential election.
In an interview with The Irish Times in Dublin yesterday, he said: "This was a misquotation. I did not say that, that would be stupid."
All he had done was engage in "an option analysis", he explained. "If Mr Kerry was to win, what would happen; if Mr Bush were to win, what would happen; if Mr Bush was to lose, what could he do during the 'lame duck' period [ prior to his successor's inauguration in January].
"I was not really giving any preferences, nor any forecasts. How could we? We are not a factor in these elections. Actually, the Palestinian-Americans will mostly vote for [ Ralph] Nader, out of frustration."
The Palestinian Authority, the interim Palestinian government, had no preferred candidate: "We think that both Republican and Democratic Presidents in the last 20 years have had times when they were useful and helpful, and times when they just shut off completely and did not help in any way."
On the role of the current White House incumbent, Dr Shaath said, "President Bush has really been the man who gave the clearest statement ever: an independent Palestinian state that is democratic and viable, that will end the [ Israeli] occupation of 1967.
"You couldn't beat that. And his father, actually, dragged [ former Israeli prime minister] Mr Shamir kicking and screaming to Madrid [ for peace talks].
"But also Mr Clinton, really, as a Democratic president, did a lot of work to try to achieve that peace. And Mr Carter before him made an important statement about the right of the Palestinians to a homeland. It was the first time an American president used that sentence.
"So we really have no problem with either of the parties. We have problems sometimes with the direction the American administration takes, to satisfy its very unique commitments to the state of Israel and to the Israeli lobby in the US, regardless of whether they are Republicans or Democrats."
But he would agree with the view that President Bush has been sitting on his hands with regard to the Road Map to a two-state solution. "Absolutely."
Dr Shaath describes Mr Bush as "the father of the Road Map" but adds that the president did not do much to implement it, and eventually concentrated on supporting the Israeli Prime Minister, Mr Ariel Sharon.
The changing situation in Iraq and its repercussions for his re-election took up more and more of the president's attention: "We lost him as an initiator. We lost his influence to get the Israelis back to the peace process."
But this could change, according to Dr Shaath. "Many people are telling us, he will be different after the election."
Better or worse? "The common wisdom is that he will be better. People in their second term, or in their lame duck period, are less vulnerable to lobbying pressure and more interested in their legacy. If that is true, we should expect Mr Bush to deliver more, after November. If it's not true - we lose!"
Asked if the Palestinian leadership would be able to stamp its authority on the Gaza Strip in the event of an eventual Israeli withdrawal, given the activities of wilder elements in Gaza at the moment, Dr Shaath replied: "It is not as wild as Iraq is, even with 300,00 foreign troops led by the Americans. But countries under occupation do tend to get wild.
"Occupation is not a democratic procedure, nor is it a nice, humanitarian thing."
So, if the Israelis withdrew and their armed forces ceased activities in Gaza, then the territory would be more manageable? "Absolutely."
Criminal gangs were operating "in a small stretch of territory to the south of Gaza City", but Dr Shaath claimed that the Israelis were literally blocking Palestinian security forces from entering the so-called "Middle Region" to deal with this problem.
I asked him, in the event that there was a new and more positive atmosphere after the US presidential election, what concrete proposals would the Palestinian side be putting forward to restore the peace process?
"We have two very clearly acceptable instruments. One, the Road Map itself, which is a detailed plan of action to fulfil the objective of an independent Palestinian state, etc. It has a long list of things we should be doing, and we will do them, including reform, security measures, an empowered Prime Minister, elections, all of which are what we want to do. It has also a long list of the things that the Israelis ought to be doing."
The other instrument is the Egyptian Initiative. Egypt is offering to help get Hamas and others to form a Government of National Unity with the Palestinian Authority. "They are also offering to send Egyptian officers to help train, reorganise and upgrade our security forces."
While condemning suicide bombings as unjustified, he insists the basic cause of the problem is the Israeli occupation.
"It isn't like the typical chicken and egg, where you don't know which is the beginning and the end. In our case it is very clear. In 1967 the Israelis invaded the West Bank and Gaza and started a process of settlement and change of demographic population.
"It's all really a result of that."