After two days of huddled negotiations, the Japanese Foreign Minister, Mr Keizo Obuchi, emerged yesterday as front runner in the race to succeed Mr Ryutaro Hashimoto as prime minister. Aides to Mr Obuchi, who heads the largest faction in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), said the 61-year-old would declare his candidacy today.
According to analysts, Mr Obuchi, who has broad cross-factional support and the backing of the former prime minister and LDP king-maker, Mr Noboru Takeshita, is now clear favourite to take over as prime minister. Other possible candidates, notably the Health and Welfare Minister, Mr Junichiro Koizumi, have yet to declare their intentions. Time is running out for would-be challengers.
Following the crushing upper house election defeat that toppled Mr Hashimoto, party leaders decided to accelerate the process of selecting a successor. The LDP secretary general, Mr Koichi Kato, said this was necessary to avoid a lengthy power vacuum that might worsen Japan's economic situation.
LDP Diet members will vote on Tuesday for a new party leader. The winner is virtually guaranteed the post of prime minister because the party has a comfortable majority in the powerful lower house of parliament. A new government is expected to be in place by July 30th.
Mr Obuchi decided to stand after being guaranteed the support of his faction, which includes a potential rival, Mr Seiroku Kajiyama. Mr Obuchi's supporters said he was the only candidate with the political clout to push through decisive measures to clear up the banking system and revive the economy. As foreign minister, he is also seen as the candidate best equipped to pursue Mr Hashimoto's most successful diplomatic initiative - peace treaty talks with Russia.
Under the LDP's seniority system, promotions are determined by political longevity more than merit. Mr Obuchi, re-elected 12 times and a loyal servant of Mr Takeshita, is a product of that system.
Although he is considered honest and hard-working, commentators bemoan his lack of intellect, dynamism and charisma. He also has relatively little experience in diplomatic and financial affairs, having held the foreign ministry portfolio only since last September.
"According to the internal logic of the LDP, Mr Obuchi is the favourite, but he won't be able to handle the economic crisis," said Dr Yasunori Sone, Professor of Political Science at Keio University. "That is why Mr Hashimoto was able to hang o as long as he did."
Younger LDP deputies fear that a decision behind closed doors to appoint Mr Obuchi would send the wrong signal to the markets and provide ammunition to the opposition in advance of a general election that must be held in 2000 at the latest. Yesterday, they wrote to the LDP executive to insist on an open selection process.
This group is reported to support the Health Minister, Mr Koizumi, who established his freemarket credentials last year in an ultimately unsuccessful battle to privatise Japan's postal savings and insurance system.
Most of the other names in circulation highlight the dearth of talent in the LDP. They include a former foreign minister, Mr Yohei Kono (61), a former prime minister, Mr Kiichi Miyazawa (78), and even, according to some sources, the octogenarian former prime minister, Mr Yasuhiro Nakasone.