The British government's decision to stop culling animals on farms adjoining holdings where foot-and-mouth has been found is bad news.
It almost mirrors what happened in Britain in 1967 when, two months into the outbreak, the authorities decided it was under control and relaxed their movement controls.
Within weeks the disease had broken out again in many other parts of the country and by the time it was controlled, more than 2,200 cases had broken out and more than half a million animals had to be destroyed.
Experts here believe the decision not to cull on adjoining farms will almost certainly lead to further spread of the disease and will prolong the epidemic there. This will create a continuing challenge to this State, which has had a full slaughter policy towards the disease, taking out all animals within a 3 km perimeter when it is identified.
While it is clear the UK government is under extreme pressure in the run-up to an election from animal welfare activists and the tourism industry, as yet no such pressure exists here. When the disease was first identified in Northern Ireland, there were long delays in getting to grips with the slaughtering of animals in a 3 km zone around Meigh, Co Armagh.
For political reasons, the RUC did not want to move into the area without British army cover. Local people objected to the army and there was a long standoff while delicate negotiations took place. The Northern Minister for Agriculture, Mrs Brid Rodgers, now acknowledges there were illegal movements of animals which have continued up until recently, despite a ban on the movement of all animals.
The result of this is that Northern Ireland has cases of foot-and-mouth in three of the six counties. In the Republic, the Proleek outbreak was quickly contained and while it cannot yet be proved, it would appear it happened because of either animal or human contact with Meigh. A shoot-first-and-ask-questions-afterwards policy was quickly adopted on this side of the Border.
This action would appear to have held the disease in that area - an area which will be declared free of the disease this weekend. However, because of the amount of legal and illegal movements of animals between here, Northern Ireland and Britain, the Government is embarking on an extensive blood screening operation to cover the State.
Over the next few weeks 200,000 blood samples will be taken from flocks in the 26 counties and they will be screened for antibodies to determine if they have had contact with foot-and-mouth disease. The authorities hope this may help them pick up any possible contact local sheep may have had with illegally imported sheep or cattle from the North of Ireland.
Veterinary experts such as Mr Sean O Laoide of Veterinary Ireland, fear that somewhere in the State a sheep imported from Britain, which may not yet be identified, may have contracted foot-and-mouth and recovered from the disease but could facilitate its transmission.
While it is clear we cannot keep Ireland's national herd locked up for the next year to avoid foot-and-mouth, the news that Britain seems to have dropped its guard and that the North has been unable to confine the disease to one case, is grave indeed.
It is also far from comforting that the opening salvo against cattle smuggling has already turned up over 120 animals in just one county - Tipperary. It will take very careful management to prevent another outbreak of the disease here when normal movement is allowed and tourists from Britain start coming in large numbers during the summer.