New electoral map displays a stark

If a picture is worth a thousand words then the impact of the new electoral map of Northern Ireland must be worth a stack of books dealing with hard political and historical realities.

The geography is green all the way round from Derry City to the mouth of Strangford Lough, with that nationalist hue digging deep into mid-Ulster as well, and the orange of unionism, apart from the West Belfast constituency, holding firm in the north-eastern corner.

It must be a re-partitionist's dream and a nightmare for those who could conceive of Northern Ireland collapsing into Balkan-style ethnic conflict.

At the moment nobody, wisely, is talking up the darker picture but let's just say the map has concentrated minds on the dangers.

Sinn Fein is now marginally ahead of the SDLP in percentage vote, and if that is replicated in the council elections as the results filter through today and tomorrow, then the problems of Mr John Hume's party will be compounded further.

Middle-ranking SDLP people were talking at the weekend of the need to restructure. That's obvious but the difficult question for Mr Hume, Mr Seamus Mallon and other senior party figures is, must that also apply to the leadership.

Mr David Trimble's effective message to those who would seek his crown is, "If you want me, come and get me, I'm not budging."

Bullish to the last, his chances of withstanding a serious challenge when the Ulster Unionist Council meets on Saturday week could be down to the local results.

The First Minister now needs some luck. His difficulty is that in the Westminster poll thousands of Alliance and some SDLP supporters voted tactically for the UUP. That didn't happen in the local elections.

Mr Trimble is hoping the proportional representation system of the local elections will serve him well. Which brings us back to the agreement, and that map. With the DUP and Sinn Fein doing so well in the election there are dangers of greater sectarian and political polarisation.

Sinn Fein dislikes any extremist tag. Mr Martin McGuinness points out that Sinn Fein is a pro-agreement party and that the Yes parties still won the day on Thursday.

Indeed, when you add the votes of Sinn Fein, the SDLP, the UUP, Alliance, the Women's Coalition and the Workers' Party, it brings the Yes tally to 74 per cent.

The DUP insists that no matter which way you crunch the statistics, more unionists now oppose the agreement. Equally, Mr Trimble insists that a vote for UUP candidates - whether they were Yes, No or on the fence - was a vote for the agreement.

The DUP is proud to be hardline, but there are realists in that party as well, chief of whom Mr Peter Robinson. They understand that the political geography is utterly changed and the old loose principles about dealing with Sinn Fein may need to be further stretched or massaged, if not amended.

The British and Irish governments begin hosting negotiations on this day week and, as ever, it's primarily about three issues, IRA arms, demilitarisation, and policing. These will be difficult talks.

Unionists want no more concessions on policing, although Mr Tony Blair has signalled his willingness to make such concessions. Will such a powerful leader bend to the UUP and DUP?

Demilitarisation can be resolved if there is a quid pro quo on IRA arms.

The IRA has options on weapons. It can continue to play hardball, reckoning there is more advantage to stringing out the issue. It can move on arms but, believing that he is too badly wounded already, not until Mr Trimble is toppled as leader.

Or it can finesse the DUP and the No wing of the UUP, and start the business of putting its dumps beyond use, perhaps even allowing Mr Trimble remain in command of the UUP.

There was a fascinating interchange on BBC Radio Ulster yesterday between former Sinn Fein councillor Mr Mairtin O Muilleoir and Mr Mervyn Storey, the DUP election agent for new MP Mr Gregory Campbell, which could provide some idea of how the future may pan out.

Their conversation was civil, even conciliatory. And those people who have a bleak view of the future because of that map may take some comfort from Mr O Muilleoir's comments.

Because the "IRA came out of this election stronger" it therefore had "a little bit of wriggle room" on decommissioning, he said. But why would the IRA not express remorse for its actions, asked Mr Storey.

Mr O Muilleoir, who was not speaking for either Sinn Fein or the IRA but has an undeniable insight into republican thinking, responded, "Believe me, there is remorse and regret. There is a belief that the road we went down was a bad road for everyone. But, Mervyn, we had victims too. Often that is not recognised."