PRESIDENT ROBERT Mugabe and Zimbabwe's main opposition leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, last night appeared increasingly likely to be facing a run-off contest for the presidency despite rumours Mr Mugabe was preparing to step down, writes BILL CORCORANin Johannesburg.
Diplomatic sources' suggestions that the president was engaged in discussions with the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) over an orderly transfer of power were vehemently denied both by the MDC and Mr Mugabe's deputy information minister.
MDC secretary-general Tendai Biti insisted that, "I have answered that question a hundred times . . . It's rubbish, absolute rubbish."
Stunned by results indicating a victory for the MDC in the parliamentary and presidential polls, some in Mr Mugabe's Zanu-PF party have seized on an independent projection Mr Tsvangirai may fall just short of the 50-per-cent-plus-one-vote threshold to avoid a run-off. They are believed to be attempting to persuade Mr Mugabe to accept such a result in the hope that he may recover support in the run-off in three weeks.
As of last night, Zimbabwe's official electoral body, the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC), had still not published any presidential results.
While the MDC continues to claim an absolute majority based on its tallies, early yesterday an independent monitoring group, the Zimbabwe Election Support Network (ZESN), said it projected the MDC's Mr Tsvangirai at 49 per cent of the vote, Mr Mugabe at 42 per cent, and the independent Simba Makoni, with 8 per cent. Senior Zanu-PF figures were reported to have released similar figures.
While some observers claim the delay in publication of results is to facilitate attempts to rig the election, others believe the ZEC wants to give Mr Mugabe's advisers time to persuade him to face a run-off or to step down and get safety assurances for his inner circle who fear retribution.
"The worst-case scenario is a run-off and it's still a possibility," said Ian Makone, the MDC's chief election strategist. "But I am happy to relish the idea."
Prof Jonathan Moyo, a former close presidential aide who ran as an independent MP, said Zanu-PF politicians were now relying on a run-off. "A run-off will annihilate them. There is no way he can win it."
The mood in the MDC has gone from despair on Monday following the news that, on Sunday night, Mr Mugabe's security chiefs argued in favour of fiddling the results, to optimism yesterday.
The MDC fears a three-week campaign for a run-off would see a return to the state intimidation that scarred the last presidential election in 2002.
But it shares Prof Moyo's belief it would be very difficult for Mr Mugabe to win a second round given that his aura of invincibility has been shattered and the scale of the country's economic implosion. - (Additional reporting by Financial Times)
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Parliamentary results put opponents alongside ruling party: page 12; Editorial comment: page 17