The arrest and planned trial of the mayor of Tehran, Mr Gholam-hossein Karbaschi, has emerged as much the most serious episode yet in the power struggle that pits the Islamic Republic's moderate reformists, headed by the President, Mr Muhammad Khatami, against its still dominant conservatives, headed by the Leader and supreme Religious Jurisprudent, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Mr Karbaschi, a moderate close to President Khatami, was arrested on April 4th in connection with a corruption scandal in the city government. Yesterday Iranian newspapers reported that a court appeal by Mr Karbaschi seeking his release from detention had been rejected.
Doubtless because of the gravity of the situation, neither the President nor the Ayatollah has taken a public position. They and other magnates of the regime, notably the former president, Mr Hashemi Rafsanjani, are striving to resolve the crisis from behind the scenes. But with the two sides showing little sign of flexibility, with public opinion largely rallying to the moderates and students threatening to demonstrate, the affair has become a very public, very symbolic, trial of strength which neither can afford to lose.
Only Mr Karbaschi's release would satisfy the moderates, but that would be such a heavy blow to the conservatives that Dr Khamenei, with his own prestige heavily involved, would be loath to permit it. On the other hand, the trial of one of his key supporters would not only be a humiliation for Mr Khatami, it would all but guarantee the further escalation of the crisis, leading to public disturbances and their suppression by security forces under conservative control.
Student supporters of Mr Khatami have called for demonstrations in favour of both the President and Mr Karbaschi today. Like other moderates, they see the mayor's arrest as purely political, a "quasi-coup", as one put it, an attempt to bring down the government or even Mr Khatami himself. Even if some compromise is hammered out, it can be a short-term solution only. The power struggle will erupt again somewhere else. The crisis has aggravated a whole gamut of personal, political and, most serious, constitutional conflicts at the heart of the regime, with the Khatamists mainly represented in a cabinet that has little or no jurisdiction over state institutions still in the grip of the conservatives. The moderates enjoy growing support from public opinion both inside and outside the system. Nearly 700 mayors called on President Khatami to "prevent honest officials from being sacrificed to partisan political goals." Every day, centrist or left-wing newspapers devote pages to statements of solidarity with the imprisoned mayor.
Even some conservative mullahs have come out against the judiciary, less out of sympathy with Mr Karbaschi than because of the perils which the affair poses. Ayatollah Khashani, close to Dr Khamenei, warned that "any escalation of the crisis would be like presenting our enemies with a petrol canister to set alight." Meanwhile, the moderates hint that they are ready to take the issue to the streets.