US: A recent poll provides good news for the Democratic candidate, writesAdrian Langan.
Senator John Kerry will enter the arena of the Democratic National Convention this week with some good news in his back pocket. A recent poll from the Pew Research Centre in Washington, conducted from July 8th-18th, tells him some highly positive things about his chances of election come November.
Mr Kerry and President Bush have been trading the lead in opinion polls for the past few months, with Mr Kerry holding a slight advantage at the moment. Critically, however, this latest poll shows Mr Kerry pulling ahead in what are termed the battleground states - Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania - that will ultimately decide who wins in November. In these battleground states, he holds a 47 per cent-41 per cent edge. This marks a major turnaround; last month, Mr Bush was ahead by 11 points in these states.
The poll finds that the US electorate sees the Democratic Party as the best option for dealing with pretty much all issues except internal terrorism.
Equally important for Mr Kerry is that 63 per cent of Americans are saying that it "really matters" who wins the election, compared to 45 per cent who thought that four years ago. Critically, that change is mostly among Democrats, with two-thirds of them holding that view now, compared to only 46 per cent back in 2000.
The reason for this is quite simple: Democrats in 2000 had eight years of incumbency to look back on; they weren't enthused by Al Gore, and they didn't see Mr Bush as a threat. Four years of President Bush appears to have changed a lot of minds among Democrat voters.
Meanwhile, moderate Republicans are less enthused by the election, demonstrating that President Bush has not been as successful in attracting and retaining moderate supporters in his own camp. He has broken the great Richard Nixon rule of Republican politics - when a candidate in the Republican primaries, lean to the right: when a candidate for president, break your neck to get back to the centre.
President Bush is still suffering from a ratings hangover. Satisfaction with his work is below 50 per cent. Even worse for him is that just 42 per cent approve of his administration's handling of Iraq. These findings explain the latest thrust in the President's campaign to start talking of himself as the "peace" President, and his intention to campaign in battleground states over the coming months on domestic issues.
More good news for Mr Kerry is that this poll confirms the popularity of his choice of running mate. The public reception of John Edwards is much better than that which Mr Gore received as vice-presidential nominee back in 1992.
Most importantly, it is felt that Mr Edwards's popularity will be of particular importance in the battleground states, where his commonsense and populist approach - and downright conservatism on many issues - will balance the "liberal north-eastern" image of Mr Kerry.
The contrast between the two vice-presidential candidates is stark.
The continuing revelations about Halliburton is not useful in Dick Cheney's efforts to even stay on the Republican ticket, let alone help Mr Bush win crucial states.
While the economy appears to be declining in importance as an issue for voters vis-à-vis the Iraq war, the cliché that "it's the economy, stupid" nonetheless still holds true. And this is where President Bush has most to feel concerned about - this latest poll highlights that 46 per cent of Americans believe the Democrats can do the best job on the economy, while only 34 per cent believe the Republicans can.
These figures must be worrying to Republicans, and demonstrate the success of moderate Democrats at highlighting the economic mistakes of the Bush administration, particularly the large deficit it has generated.
Such Democrats have convinced a sizable proportion of Republicans that their President is doing a poor job on what should be one of his strongest areas. In this election, which has been dubbed a "turn-out war", this could result in fewer Republicans showing up to vote for President Bush, which could be critical in certain key states.
An interesting, and possibly decisive, sub-plot in the race for president is the continuing presence in the campaign of Ralph Nader. He still secures between 4 and 6 per cent in the polls. And with his support concentrated in certain states, he could again, as in 2000, tip the balance in Mr Bush's favour. Mr Nader's presence takes at least 2 per cent from Mr Kerry nationally. We can therefore expect the heat to be turned up on Mr Nader, from Democrats and a wide variety of progressive groups, to get off the pitch before November.
It would appear that Presidents Bush's tactic of seeking a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage has backfired. Unlike in Ireland, where these changes are quite a regular occurrence, US constitutional amendments are infrequent, and difficult to secure.
This latest poll shows that only 31 per cent of people think the proposed change is a good idea. More importantly, only 46 per cent of Republicans think it is a good idea. Even among the staunchly Republican white evangelical community, only 53 per cent agree with the President. As a consequence of those numbers, this article is probably the last thing you will read about this issue.
The survey threw up other interesting findings. For example, only 26 per cent of Americans are aware that Mr Kerry is a Catholic, showing that US society has changed quite substantially since John F. Kennedy stood for office.
Michael Moore's film, Fahrenheit 9/11, unsurprisingly divides opinion strongly.
Of those who have seen it, 84 per cent favour Mr Kerry versus 12 per cent behind Mr Bush. That said, only about 20 per cent of Americans were interested in news stories about Moore's film, which is about half those who said they were interested in stories about Mel Gibson's The Passion of the Christ.
It would appear, therefore, that Moore's evident Jesus complex goes only half-way towards achieving the correct level of public recognition.
Adrian Langan is executive director of Bill O'Herlihy Communications, and a former director of the Irish Alliance for Europe