KENYA: Predictions are a perilous business in Kenyan politics. For the past 24 years President Daniel arap Moi has skilfully used tribe, personality and downright skulduggery to confound predictions of his early demise. But six days away from elections, now may be the time for such foolishness.
From Declan Walsh,
in Nairobi
According to polls, pundits and many ordinary Kenyans, opposition victory is imminent. Mr Moi is stepping down and his ruling Kenya African National Union (KANU), through the ill-fated candidacy of Mr Uhuru Kenyatta, looks set for a fall. If that happens, Kenya's next president will be Mr Mwai Kibaki.
For Mr Kibaki it would be third time lucky. The 71-year-old politician came third in the 1992 elections and second in 1997. A few weeks ago, fate nearly robbed him again. Two people were killed and his jeep was destroyed in a road accident on the way back from a rally. Mr Kibaki escaped with a broken arm, a twisted ankle and hairline spinal fracture.
He sat under a tree yesterday at his house in Muthaiga, an upmarket Nairobi suburb, with one plastered leg perched on a footstool. "Soon I will be back playing my game of golf," he joked.
The accident seems to have boosted his public support even further. Up to 150,000 people lined the road from the airport to Nairobi when he returned from a London hospital last weekend.
This hero status is new. Kenyans vote usually in tribal blocs and until this year Mr Kibaki depended largely on the Kikuyu, the largest tribe.
But when Mr Moi attempted to impose Mr Kenyatta, son of independence leader Jomo Kenyatta, as his successor some months ago, he split KANU in two. A series of high-level defections to the opposition followed. Mr Kibaki seized the day and with other leaders forged the cross-tribal National Rainbow Coalition (Narc).
A former university lecturer, Mr Kibaki is seen as a gentlemanly figure with a clean record. He is a safe and experienced pair of hands, having served as vice-president for a decade before leaving for the opposition in 1991.
But if Kenyans are excited about the prospect of a new president, the campaign to choose one has been disappointingly dull, if remarkably peaceful by Kenyan standards so far.
A Narc victory could restore international confidence in Kenya, freeing up millions of euro in international aid frozen because of concerns about corruption.