FINE GAEL:The main issue for the revitalised organisation is how its leader will perform – especially if he participates in televised debate, writes STEPHEN COLLINS, Political Editor
FINE GAEL is on the cusp of becoming the biggest party in the Dáil for the first time in its history. The campaign over the next three weeks will determine whether its consistent performance in the polls over the past two years can be translated into Dáil seats.
While Fine Gael did well in the last election, gaining 20 seats and ending up with 51, the eventual outcome was a deep disappointment to its TDs and supporters. Enda Kenny led his party to the brink of power only to falter at the final hurdle as Fianna Fáil surged to victory in the last week of the campaign.
Given what has happened to the economy since 2007, the party’s failure to win power is now being seen by its supporters as a narrow escape from political hell. “The best thing Enda ever did for Fine Gael was not to win the last election. Imagine where we would be now if he had pulled it off,” said one of his TDs.
In hindsight, the 2007 result was perfect for Fine Gael. The party came back from the drubbing of 2002 with a big intake of new talent and was perfectly positioned to take advantage of the collapsing fortunes of Fianna Fáil, which were so closely tied to the collapse of the property bubble.
Fine Gael pushed on from its 2007 recovery to become, for the first time, the biggest party in local government in the elections of 2009. It won around 125 council seats more than Fianna Fáil and positioned itself nicely to make a determined effort to overtake its old rival in the next general election.
However, a sudden surge in support for the Labour Party in the opinion polls during the first half of 2010 threatened to upset the Fine Gael dream of becoming the biggest party for the first time.
Kenny’s position was suddenly under threat and he had to face a determined leadership heave led by his deputy leader, Richard Bruton.
That heave last June amounted to a severe test of Kenny’s character and judgment and he astonished his critics in the party and the media by seeing off his opponents and coming through it with his reputation enhanced.
After the heave, Fine Gael recovered its position as the leading party in the opinion polls, although Kenny’s personal ratings remained the same.
The necessity for a strong performance from Kenny in this election campaign is probably the biggest issue facing Fine Gael.
The normal routine of campaigning up and down the country will be no problem for him. He is good on the hard graft of electioneering and will shake hands and slap backs with the best of them.
The big question mark is how he will perform during the leaders’ debate. Last time around Bertie Ahern was widely perceived to have won. This time it will be a three-way or even a five-way contest and Kenny will be under scrutiny to see how he performs against Micheál Martin and Eamon Gilmore. The debate over the debate will increase the pressure.
On the other hand, the party’s standing in the polls so far has been achieved in spite of Kenny’s disappointing personal ratings, so as long as his performance in the debate is adequate, the impact on Fine Gael is likely to be marginal.
In spite of all the sniping at his perceived failures as a leader, Kenny has managed to see off two Fianna Fáil leaders and two Labour leaders during his time at the helm. Whatever his shortcomings as a television performer, he has been a “lucky general” for Fine Gael. He is now tantalisingly close to the glittering prize and if he becomes taoiseach in a few week’ time, it will represent an extraordinary achievement given the state of his party when he became leader in 2002.
Fine Gael will fight the election on the basis of presenting a strong team and the return of former leader Michael Noonan to the front bench as finance spokesman has strengthened its hand considerably. At the other end of the age scale, the commanding media performances of Leo Varadkar give balance to the team. All of them will have to articulate a clear and coherent message over the coming weeks to a despondent electorate.
At this stage, Fine Gael could not be better prepared for the campaign and a target of 70 seats is not unrealistic. Whether it will be achieved depends on how the party and its leaders deal with “events” as they unfold during the next three weeks.
HOW THEY FARED IN 2007
VOTE PERCENTAGE:27.3%
SEATS:51