CHINA: China's President Jiang Zemin, is widely thought to be preparing to stay on as head of the Communist party instead of retiring this autumn.
The Chinese leadership is believed to be discussing the future at its annual seaside get-together in the coastal resort of Beidaihe, although the national media have not confirmed that the meeting is taking place.
"Everyone thinks he will still be general secretary of the party after the next Congress," said a political scientist from Beijing University. "They are all reconciled to it." Mr Jiang (75) has long past the informally accepted retirement age of 70 and was expected to hand over gracefully to younger leaders headed by the vice-president, Mr Hu Jintao.
Some foreign observers fear that his failure to go would send a negative signal to the outside world that China is still unable to handle internal change.
However, Chinese observers of varying backgrounds in Beijing take a calmer view. "Our succession is concerned more with domestic politics than with impressing the west," said a senior research analyst. "We emphasise stability and the leaders have their own priorities." Chinese businessmen who have benefited from Mr Jiang's policies are said to feel that continuity is important.
"No one expects rapid change from any leader," said a more liberal scholar. "They just want to be sure there is no chaos at the top. They are waiting for ten years down the line." Mr Jiang was expected to give up leading the party and step down as president next March at China's National People's Congress. He was also expected to retain a hand on power by remaining in his third position as chairman of the central military commission.
If Mr Jiang remains in direct charge as general secretary, other party elders - particularly the NPC leader, Mr Li Peng - are much less likely to take a back seat. Mr Li was prominent in suppressing the democracy movement in 1989 .
One theory is that Mr Jiang has raised the possibility of staying on to ensure that none of his fellow leaders in the so-called "third generation" - those who grew up in the revolution - go back on their agreement to step down with him.