He is back as the North's First Minister with IRA decommissioning under his belt and even his staunchest opponents don't expect to cause him problems at the Ulster Unionist annual conference today. But David Trimble knows it is too early to write off his enemies. The UUP's anti-agreement wing remains vehemently opposed to the current political set-up and believes it can again force him out of government with Sinn FΘin.
There are no controversial motions on today's agenda. The real debate will take place in a fortnight when the party's ruling body, the Ulster Unionist Council, is expected to meet in private session. Anti-agreement members have collected a petition demanding the meeting.
Efforts to convince them to withdraw the request have failed. "The pressure itself is a sign the leadership is worried about our strength," says former Young Unionist president, Dr Philip Weir.
The 860 delegates will be asked to support a motion, sponsored by anti-agreement MP Jeffrey Donaldson, which will attempt to ensure the party withdraws from government with Sinn FΘin if there isn't total IRA decommissioning by February when the remit of Gen John de Chastelain's decommissioning body expires.
Mr Trimble is opposed to a new deadline. Anti-agreement unionists think he will be forced to change before the UUC meeting.
"He won't carry the vote with his present policy," predicts Dr Weir. "I'm confident we can get the UUC to agree to a February deadline." Other anti-agreement figures believe the only way Mr Trimble can defeat their motion is by putting forward his own hard-line alternative. "He might win but only wearing Jeffrey Donaldson's clothes," says a source.
Mr Donaldson says ordinary unionists remain concerned about decommissioning. "They aren't satisfied with a one-off secret act. They want a strategy to achieve complete decommissioning. If anyone thinks this issue will be brushed under the carpet, they're sadly mistaken. We will ensure it remains top of the agenda."
Mr Trimble is strongly defended by the UUP vice-president, Lord Maginnis. "His achievements have been remarkable. Articles 2 and 3 are gone, Northern Ireland's constitutional position is in the hands of the electorate, we have devolution and decommissioning has begun."
The UUP leader is supported by the vast majority of his team of MPs and Assembly members, Lord Maginnis says. "Certain individuals have been scare-mongering but well-informed party members know the truth and David's success is becoming increasingly apparent right across the party."
UUP chief whip Jim Wilson says internal criticism of Mr Trimble has nothing to do with concerns about decommissioning.
"This is not about policy, it is about getting David Trimble, plain and simple. It is very personal against David Trimble, particularly from the Young Unionists."
Anti-agreement unionists insist they have genuine policy concerns and are not embarking on a vendetta. They say their support base is increasing and includes previous agreement supporters.
They point to letters of support from UUP branches across the North for Pauline Armitage, the Assembly member suspended from the party for voting against Mr Trimble.
Arlene Foster, a member of the UUP's officer team from Co Fermanagh, says Mr Trimble's dependence on Alliance and Women's Coalition votes for re-election as First Minister, and the re-writing of the rules to allow that to happen, seriously damaged his credibility. She predicts his situation will worsen over coming months.
"The IRA is planning to hand out war medals to its members. A terrorist amnesty will see people like Owen Carron, the former Sinn FΘin MP who went on the run, back in Fermanagh. The planned criminal justice legislation will mean the removal of British symbols from courtrooms. These developments will incense unionists."
There is speculation of a leadership challenge to Mr Trimble at the UUC's annual general meeting in March. "David Trimble can't survive indefinitely with so many people against him," says Pauline Armitage. "I've no doubt we will have a new leader after March. There are Assembly elections the following year. If we don't remove him we will be lost and we are not prepared to be lost."
Mr Trimble's political adviser, Mr Steven King, says there in "no credible alternative to David as party leader". He insists his strategy has succeeded. "David Trimble analysed the Provos correctly and kept his nerve amidst bitter criticism. He has delivered a start to decommissioning. He deserves the total backing of his party."