Israel talks tough as worries mount

MIDDLE EAST: According to Israeli officials, "Operation Protective Wall", intended by Prime Minister Mr Ariel Sharon to "smash…

MIDDLE EAST: According to Israeli officials, "Operation Protective Wall", intended by Prime Minister Mr Ariel Sharon to "smash the terrorist infrastructure" in the West Bank, is unfolding pretty much as planned.

Behind the scenes, though, there is mounting concern at the international criticism, the prospect of having to fight on a second front - against Lebanon and Syria - and, perhaps most of all, the still unresolved question of what to with Mr Yasser Arafat.

At their daily media briefings, military spokespeople highlight the capture of dozens of "wanted men" from Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Mr Arafat's Fatah faction, the bomb-making laboratories found, the weapons caches uncovered and, in Ramallah over the past two days.

They also draw attention to the "smoking gun" documents which they say show Mr Arafat's financial adviser, Mr Fuad Shubaki, handling payments to Fatah's al-Aqsa Brigades for bomb components and funding for suicide-bombers' families.

READ MORE

Col Miri Eisen, an army intelligence officer, yesterday described these papers as proof of the Palestinian Authority's absolute complicity in terrorism.

The key difference between this and previous army operations, say aides to Mr Sharon, is that "the terrorist have nowhere to run". Indeed, the army is deployed in or around every major population centre in the West Bank, from Jenin in the north, all the way south to Hebron.

Importantly for Mr Sharon, his main coalition partners, the Labour Party, are standing by the operation - for now.

The Prime Minister is reaping the benefit of two appointments for which his own Likud party blasted him: Mr Shimon Peres as Foreign Minister and Mr Benjamin Ben-Eliezer as Minister of Defence.

Were Labour's two most senior figures not deeply involved, it is a safe bet that they would be leading their party into opposition, loudly criticising Mr Sharon as they went.

Still, there is no hiding that aspects of this unprecedented six- day assault are not playing out as intended. There are deepening worries over the ongoing Hizbullah fire from south Lebanon, which has Israel sending frantic warnings to Syria and Lebanon via the US.

Major fighting on that border is something the strained army manpower units are extremely anxious to avoid.

There are concerns, too, at the diplomatic fallout from Jordan and Egypt.

Before the tanks rolled into Ramallah, aides to Mr Sharon insisted that the "groundwork" had been done in previous weeks to prevent those two countries severing relations.

That confidence was jolted, if not shattered, by Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's decision yesterday to suspend all contacts with Israel except diplomatic links - a somewhat vague measure. The key test will come on Saturday, when Arab League foreign ministers gather in Cairo.

A crucial factor in any Arab League decision will be the extent and tone of the street protests that are taking place in the various capitals, protests that are gathering intensity by the day.

Privately, Israeli officials acknowledge that they were taken aback by US support last weekend for a UN resolution that called on Israel to withdraw its troops - but were then relieved when Washington made clear it did not expect immediate compliance.

The EU's far stronger demand for such a withdrawal may have been anticipated, but not yesterday's first hints in Europe at possible trade sanctions.

On the ground, the army strategists presumably did not expect to be converging on the Church of the Nativity in Bethlehem - in a standoff hardly likely to endear Mr Sharon's government to the Christian world.

As for Tuesday's assault on Col Jibril Rajoub's Preventive Security headquarters in Beitunia, which eventually secured the surrender of Hamas and other wanted men inside - that severely undermined the credibility of Col Rajoub, a man his Israeli counterparts regard as a moderate.

It may have been unplanned. It may have been deliberate. It seems to signify a critical blow to the Palestinian Authority itself.

Finally, there is the small matter of Mr Arafat, besieged for a sixth day in Ramallah yesterday. If he is killed, the Palestinian and wider Arab response would likely be cataclysmic.

He has rejected the path of exile and so has the US. Yet if Mr Arafat survives unscathed to pick up the pieces of his regime, Mr Sharon would, by his own definitions, have to regard the entire operation as a failure.