Irish deaths from H1N1 virus are 'inevitable'

IRISH DEATHS from the H1N1 virus are “inevitable”, Dr Pat Doorley, head of population health with the Health Service Executive (HSE) said yesterday.

“Sadly I could not say there won’t be deaths here. It is clear we are going to have more cases and the doubling time for those cases will shorten and inevitably there will be some deaths,” Dr Doorley said on RTÉ radio.

On Saturday, the HSE released an analysis of some 156 Irish cases of the virus which have been confirmed. It reveals that young people are most at risk of contracting the virus. Under 35s have accounted for over 70 per cent of the confirmed cases of H1N1 swine flu in Ireland.

Eleven per cent of H1N1 swine flu cases were in children aged four and under, 31 per cent of cases were in teenagers and young adults aged between 15 and 24 and 21 per cent of cases were in adults aged 25 to 34. Just 3 per cent of cases were in people over 64.

This was consistent with a pattern in other countries and may reflect the fact that older people may have been exposed to a similar H1N1 virus in the past and may have some residual immunity, Dr Doorley said yesterday.

However, he “did not see any need” to stop people from shaking hands in mass or to ban large gatherings.

His comments came on foot of a suspension of the practice of giving the ‘‘sign of peace’’ in the Diocese of Cork and Ross as a precaution against H1N1 swine flu.

Bishop of Cork and Ross, Dr John Buckley outlined this advice in a letter to clergy throughout the diocese at the end of last week.

He stressed that the matter was being discussed at the archbishops conference and that the ‘‘sign of peace’’ would be reinstated as soon as major flu concerns had passed.

Dr Doorley described as not proportionate, advice by UK pregnancy charity National Childbirth Trust (NCT) that couples should delay conceiving until the epidemic has ended because a woman’s immune system is suppressed during pregnancy.

“Pregnant women are a higher risk group but I do not think that advice is proportionate,” Dr Doorley said.

Meanwhile, Irish passengers travelling through Heathrow airport in London could be stopped from getting on flights if they have swine flu.

British Airways has instructed its check-in staff to look out for passengers showing symptoms of the H1N1 virus and to alert doctors if they have concerns, the airline said yesterday.

Calling the measures “standard practice” for a medical situation, the spokeswoman said only a handful of people had so far been turned away from boarding British Airways flights.

Virgin Atlantic said people suffering from the condition would not be allowed to fly without a fit to fly certificate from their doctor or a hospital, though there had been no cases yet.

Aer Lingus does not have any specific plans in place to deal with swine flu. An Aer Lingus spokeswoman said normal procedures applied if a passenger presented themselves as sick at check in. “There are no special procedures for swine flu,” she said.

With a warning about the risks of H1N1 swine flu among young people, Trinity College Dublin has put in place a plan and has set up a group to deal with an outbreak.

The most extreme scenario could see the college allowing staff to work from home and limiting access to the college campus as well as providing counselling for staff and students in the case of a death from the virus.

A report to be released today predicts that swine flu could dispel hopes of an economic recovery in the UK next year. The report by Ernst and Young predicts that swine flu could cause the British economy to contract by 7.5 per cent.