IRA still trying to prompt elements to disarm

Garda sources have reported that the Belfast man they believe to have been the chief of staff of the IRA was seen in Dundalk …

Garda sources have reported that the Belfast man they believe to have been the chief of staff of the IRA was seen in Dundalk in recent days.

His appearance prompted speculation that he is speaking to other local IRA and explaining the leadership's decision to decommission weapons in the presence of the Independent International Commission on Decommissioning.

His presence may also suggest that there are elements in the IRA in the Border area who still need persuading of the efficacy of the decision to jettison arms.

The decision is said to have been generally accepted in urban IRA strongholds such as west Belfast and Derry. However, sources said yesterday that there was disquiet in some rural areas and along the Border between south Armagh and Monaghan.

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There was no indication that the elements within the IRA which oppose decommissioning are intent on causing a split and embarking on any renewed acts of terrorism. If this was the case, it is expected the British army would be able to respond with further closures and demolition of their hill-top posts in south Armagh.

It is believed the rejectionist republican group, known as the Continuity IRA, is intent on carrying out attacks to upset the political and peace process but senior Garda sources say this group is still very weak and does not pose a major threat.

It is believed the Continuity IRA was planning a land-mine attack in Co Tyrone last week. It was not clear last evening if the Continuity or "Real IRA" was responsible for an apparent machine-gun attack on the security forces in Belfast yesterday. Both attacks were stopped by the RUC, apparently acting on good information.

After the close of the three posts in the south Armagh - at Sturgan Mountain, Newtownhamilton and Camlough - there are a further 11 posts remaining overlooking republican strongholds such as Fork hill, Cullyhanna and Crossmaglen.

The closure of these posts and the Royal Irish Regiment (RIR) barracks at Magherafelt, Co Derry follows a pattern of demilitarisation in the North that has been going on over the past four years.

Since 1997 the British army has abandoned and demolished barracks at Cookstown, Fort George Shantallow in Derry city; Fort Whiterock in west Belfast; the RIR barracks in Kilkeel, Co Down, and the major Border crossing post at Cloghogue on the Dundalk to Newry Road.

It has also removed observation posts on the Broadway Tower nursing home overlooking west Belfast and on top of Maeve House in the New Lodge area of Belfast.

Last year the army tore down six Border checkpoints along the Border in Fermanagh.

The British army is known to favour further closure of bases and reductions in troop numbers in Northern Ireland - believed to be between 13,000 and 15,000 - to ensure it has adequate resources available should the Afghanistan war escalate.

The military had hoped that the demilitarisation process would be quicker and that it would be able to move its regular infantry forces out of the North leaving the indigenous Royal Irish Regiment to provide the bulk of the military backing for the police.

However, the continuation of sectarian violence in Belfast has prevented any major reduction. The army and police came under fire on four consecutive nights from loyalists last month as they tried to separate rioting factions in north Belfast.

The tension in north Belfast, in particular, has become the largest strain on police and military resources. However, most of the troops deployed in Belfast now belong to the RIR.

Formerly the Ulster Defence Regiment, which was derived from the old RUC Special Reserve known better as the B Specials, the RIR now has a strength of up to 5,000 regular troops and 3,000 part-time members.

Many of the regular RIR troops are former English soldiers who have chosen to settle in Northern Ireland having married local women while on service.

The induction of large numbers of experienced former regular British soldiers has considerably improved the military effectiveness of the RIR.

It is the hope of the British military that this strengthened, local regiment should be able to provide the bulk of the support needed for the police in the future should the security risk in the North be reduced.

One problem in placing so much reliance on the RIR to provide a key security role arises from the fact that the major security threat in the North now emanates from the loyalist community.

The RIR, and particularly its part-time wing, has a high percentage of Protestants, many of them living in loyalist areas.

If the regiment was to be involved in major confrontations with loyalist terrorist groups, its members could be vulnerable while off duty.

Until the loyalist threat subsides, it is expected the regular British army will still have to provide support for the police in Northern Ireland.