IRAQ: The threat of civil war hangs over Iraq between those who want an Islamic state and those seeking a secular state, writes Michael Jansen.
Iraqis continue to insist that civil war is not imminent despite the continued violence, involving suicide bombing, insurgent attacks and kidnappings. Shias, Sunnis and Kurds have no intention of fighting each other, they say.
Although the country's ethnic and sectarian communities face constant provocations from known or unknown sources, their leaders have been exercising restraint. For example, Sunnis did not respond to the recent killing of Sunni clerics in the Shia majority district of Sadr City by murdering Shia clerics.
Christians did not blame the August 1st bombings of five churches on other Iraqis.
Iraq is gripped by chaos, anarchy and an expanding insurgency. Following the collapse of the totalitarian Baathist regime, a variety of criminal gangs, Islamist groupings, tribal and clerical dissidents emerged, seizing the initiative from both the US-led foreign forces which occupied the country and from the nascent nationalist resistance. These disparate elements have very different agendas but co-operate from time to time in taking hostages and planting bombs. They generally target innocent Iraqis and Iraq's economic infrastructure rather than foreign troops.
Tawhid and Jihad (Monotheism and Holy War), founded by Abu Musab Zarqawi, has recently grabbed the headlines by kidnapping (or purchasing from others) Westerners, Arabs and Asians, and brutally killing them on camera.
It is not clear, however, that all the bombings, kidnappings and other outrages claimed by or attributed to Tawhid are actually the work of a core organisation grouped round Zarqawi. Some experts in the region do not believe Abu Musab Zarqawi exists. They think the 37-year old Jordanian veteran of the Afghan campaign may be dead and several other figures - and perhaps even several groups - use his name to strike fear in the hearts of Iraqis and of Westerners trying to operate in Iraq.
The goal of Tawhid and similar elements is to prolong chaos and anarchy so that Iraq will remain a sanctuary and base for Islamist militants battling the US and its allies in the West.
Tawhid has no concern for Iraqis who, in the view of this group, should be prepared to suffer and die in the "Jihad" against the enemies of Islam. For instance, hundreds of Iraqis desperate for jobs have been killed, mutilated or injured in bombings outside police stations and national guard recruiting offices. But the lines do not diminish because Iraqis are so desperate to secure employment they are prepared to risk their lives to apply for such posts.
Tawid is not the resistance. This seems to be made up of loosely-linked groups of former soldiers and Baathists, jobless youths, dissident tribesmen, Arab nationalists and Islamists with a nationalist agenda. They want to drive foreign forces from the country but do not seem to have a programme for what should happen once this has been achieved. Some want an Islamic state, others a secular state.
The resistance has taken over half a dozen cities in the centre of the country and destabilised the capital, where there are on average 22 attacks on US, interim Iraqi government and other targets every day. The British zone around Basra, quiet for many months, has now become violent, suggesting that disillusioned Shias could be flocking to resistance groupings.
In Salahuddin province in the north, there were resistance operations in seven cities last week.
One of the reasons given by US military commanders for the gradual rise of the national resistance was the decision taken at the Pentagon to restrict troops to their bases and cut down patrols, with the aim of lowering their profile and reducing US casualties. In practice this has meant that Iraq's cities, towns, villages and countryside have been turned over to the resistance and to the other violent groups and gangs. Consequently, security for Iraqis and foreigners is diminishing rather than improving.
If they are to win credibility with Iraqis, the resistance will have to tackle Tawhid, similar destabilising elements and criminal gangs while continuing the struggle against foreign forces. The main resistance groups will also have to form a national front and agree on the programme for ruling the country.
At this point, there could very well be civil war between those who want an Islamic system of governance and those who seek a secular state.