India worried about consequences of possible political vacuum

INDIA: INDIA REACTED guardedly to Pakistani president Pervez Musharraf's resignation in Islamabad yesterday and how it could…

INDIA:INDIA REACTED guardedly to Pakistani president Pervez Musharraf's resignation in Islamabad yesterday and how it could affect the future of ongoing peace talks between the nuclear-armed neighbours.

"We will continue to have amicable relations with Pakistan in the days to come," Indian foreign minister Pranab Mukherjee said in New Delhi, adding that Mr Musharraf's exit was an "internal matter".

Federal security officials, however, fear that a weak civilian government rife with internecine struggles will not have the same influence and authority that Mr Musharraf had over the army and its spy agency, the Inter Services Intelligence Directorate (ISID), which India blames for numerous attacks on its soil. Islamabad denies India's allegations.

These officials believe that bilateral peace talks launched in 2004 following a unilateral ceasefire declared by Pakistan in the northern, disputed Jammu and Kashmir province that is divided between the two but claimed by both, were "partially" fruitful primarily because of Mr Musharraf.

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The talks, which floundered after an elected Pakistani government assumed office in April, focus on several issues: Jammu and Kashmir; unsettled maritime and land boundaries; cross-border terrorism; narcotics smuggling; nuclear and conventional military confidence-building measures and economic co-operation.

India's national security adviser, M K Narayanan, expressed apprehension last week over Mr Musharraf's possible departure, saying he was not worried over the Pakistani leader's possible impeachment, but New Delhi's inability to identify "who controlled all the levers [of power]" in Islamabad.

"Like nature abhors vacuum, we abhor the political vacuum in Pakistan," Mr Narayanan told Singapore's Straits Times, adding that a post-Musharraf, politically turbulent Pakistan, was worrying for India.

During four years of talks under Mr Musharraf on the "composite dialogue", infiltration of armed insurgents into Kashmir had declined to its lowest level ever.

The two sides also reopened road and rail links to help reunite families estranged since independence in 1947.

An agreement to provide advance warning before the testing of missiles in a bid to preclude an accidental nuclear exchange was also reached.

Mr Musharraf also made the boldest proposal ever towards resolving the Kashmir crisis by suggesting at one point that both sides repeal their claims to the Himalayan territory and permit the region to be self-governing. A cautious and suspicious India declined.

Indian security experts now anticipate trouble from a politically beleaguered Pakistan under increasing pressure from a resurgent al-Qaeda and its Taliban associates, escalating lawlessness and a deteriorating economy.

"They are quite likely to turn on India to divert attention from their internal problems," said retired general Vijay Kapoor.