US: Two weeks before the mid-term congressional elections, independent voters are abandoning the Republican Party, along with many Hispanics whose support president George Bush has worked hard to secure.
A new opinion poll shows independents favouring Democrats by two to one, with majorities among all voters favouring Democrats on all major issues, including terrorism and the war in Iraq.
The war in Iraq is the biggest single issue driving voters away from the Republicans, who are on course to lose their majority in the House of Representatives and could even lose control of the Senate.
All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for election on November 7th, along with a third of the Senate's 100 seats.
Democrats need to pick up 15 seats to gain control of the House and six to win a majority in the Senate.
Republicans have almost given up hope of retaining their Senate seats in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Montana and Rhode Island. Three other Republican-held Senate seats - in Virginia, Tennessee and Missouri - are too close to call and one Democratic seat, in New Jersey, could fall to the Republicans.
Democrats are targeting 40 Republican-held seats in the House, while Republicans hold out little hope of making any gains.
The Republicans' electoral success under Mr Bush depended in large measure on motivating conservative voters to turn out in strength and persuading enough moderates to vote their way.
The current campaign has seen moderates turn away from the party, disillusioned by the quagmire in Iraq and anxious about extreme positions on social issues such as gay rights, stem cell research and abortion.
Conservatives, disappointed by what they see as a lack of progress on the same social issues, are softening in their support for Republicans and many could stay at home on election day.
Meanwhile, aggressive anti-immigration rhetoric by Republican candidates has alienated many Hispanic voters, who were once seen as a crucial element in a future Republican coalition.
Mr Bush won about 44 per cent of the Hispanic vote in 2004 - a 9 per cent increase from 2000. A poll this month by the Latino Coalition found Hispanic voters favouring Democrats over Republicans by 56 per cent to 19 per cent.
Mr Bush sought in recent months to keep Hispanic voters on board by promoting comprehensive immigration reform, which would allow most illegal immigrants to stay in the US and eventually apply for citizenship.
However, most Republican candidates have adopted a more aggressive, enforcement-only approach, favouring the construction of a fence along the border with Mexico and making illegal immigration and helping illegal immigration criminal offences.
Promising poll numbers have prompted Democrats to speculate openly about the prospect of winning control of Congress and to discuss legislation they would introduce immediately.
Senator Edward Kennedy said this week that, if his party wins control of the Senate, he would seek to pass within 24 hours a bill to increase the minimum wage.