Hello from winner's enclosure, says ebullient Fine Gael director

THE Taoiseach caught eight Masses yesterday, one after another

THE Taoiseach caught eight Masses yesterday, one after another. He only managed to say prayers at one, but at the end of each Mass he stood at the gate and vigorously pressed the flesh.

Mr Bruton was urging constituents in Dublin West to vote on April 2nd for the Fine Gael candidate, Tom Morrissey.

At the last Mass in Laurel Lodge, Mr Bruton and his entourage were joined, in the rain, by Mary O'Rourke - aunt of the Fianna Fail candidate - as well as by supporters of the Christian Solidarity candidate, Dr Gerard Casey, all shouting for their respective candidates. Such is the stuff of canvassing.

John Bruton's party may not be fielding the favourite, but the Taoiseach has been pleasantly surprised by the response he has personally received on the door steps and at church gates.

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His popularity is transformed. It's delightful to see," the Fine Gael director of elections, Jim Mitchell, said yesterday.

Mitchell, who represented this constituency until five years ago, is upbeat about his candidate's election chances. "Hello from the winner's enclosure", he said, speaking from the constituency office in Lucan.

Mitchell likes to use horse racing imagery when taking about this by- election. It is, he reckons, a four horse race - Morrissey, Lenihan, Higgins and Mac Giolla are the only ones at the races. Lenihan will top the poll, but I don't think he will hold the vote. If it is a battle between Fianna Fail and the others, the others will win - either Morrissey or one of the left wing candidates.

Fianna Fail is rather less exuberant. The by election will not make or break the Government, but it is a big event for Bertie Ahern His party takes little comfort from the last five by elections. Since 1992 Fianna Fail has failed to win any of the five seats. The loss to Mildred Fox in Wicklow was under Ahern's new leadership.

Like John Bruton, the Fianna Fail leader has been maintaining a high profile in the area.

Fianna Fail appears to be using a little reverse psychology in this by election. Its candidate, Brian Lenihan Jnr, is the favourite to win, but his party is keeping its predictions low key.

Director of elections Noel Dempsey, who is also party treasurer, explains: "In the past we have discovered that the more money we spend, the lower our vote goes. We are using this campaign to prove our theory. There is very little bumf being shoved through letter boxes or big promises being made. This is also the way Brian wants it. He is doing the ground work, going from door to door and asking people to give him their vote."

Dempsey was speaking on Saturday from Fianna Fail campaign headquarters in Palmerstown. Nearby, Brian Lenihan had been joined on the canvas by former Taoiseach, Albert Reynolds.

There are no pictures of Brian Lenihan Jnr adorning the telegraph polls of the Dublin West constituency simply a large poster with the name, Brian Lenihan. Of course, the man who comes to mind immediately upon seeing these posters is now dead. A picture of the candidate will he used from this week. While Brian Jnr insists that he is his own man, the party machine knows the value of the family connection.

But it remains to be seen what the voters of Dublin West think of political dynasties and if they believe the son of the father can deliver.

Lenihan needs to push the party vote from 31 per cent last time to 40 per cent to be in with a winning chance. The importance of transfers in this by election is acknowledged by all.

Fine Gael is recovering from its terrible showing of 14 per cent in 1992.

The Labour candidate is Michael O'Donovan. A teacher in the constituency, he has been partly responsible for the shaping of over 2,000 young minds, many of them now voters. However, Labour support is apparently well down since Joan Burton topped the poll.

As the party's director of elections, she insists that its record in government, particularly on rezoning, will gather votes.

The large number of candidates, could work to Morrissey's advantage, if he gets transfers from the PDs' Sheila Terry to put him ahead of the left wing candidates.

For the Workers' Party, Tomas Mac Giolla, who lost his Dail seat in Dublin West in 1992 after holding it for 10 years, has a name that is well known throughout the constituency. Joe Higgins, Independent Labour, is another strong contender who been involved in local politics for a long time. He is making the water charges his main platform. These two may split the working class vote.

Other candidates include Vincent Ballyfermot Jackson, who is contesting the election as an independent community candidate. He is currently deputy Lord Mayor of Dublin.

John O'Halloran, an independent south Dublin councillor has said he would ensure that crime and punishment issues are at the forefront of the agenda.

Green Party candidate Paul Gogarty is hoping for a breakthrough but it is difficult in such a crowded field.

It will be interesting to see how the difficulties in the peace process affect Sinn Fein candidate John McCann.

Dr Casey, candidate and president of the Christian Solidarity Party, puts himself forward in his bright yellow election pamphlet: "For Community, for Family, for Life."

Dublin West is a sprawling and still growing constituency. Jim Mitchell is amazed at how many housing estates have been built in the five years since he represented the area. It is probably the highest mortgage holding constituency in the State, with a population that has risen dramatically. It brings in Blanchardstown, Clonsilla, Castleknock, Mulhuddart, Lucan, Palmerstown, Cherry Orchard and North Clondalkin and contains every type of voter.

There does not appear to be any burning issue in this campaign. Candidates are hearing of everything from getting rid of drug pushers in Ballyfermot, to roving horses in Gallenstown, to taxation in Castleknock. Crime, of course, is high on the agenda for all voters; other issues include water charges, the provision of a regional technical college in Blanchardstown, rezoning and unemployment.

Fianna Fail moved the writ for this by election last Tuesday week with timing which has proved an irritant to many of the other parties. Now almost halfway through, the campaign will no doubt gather momentum, although a high turn out is not expected.