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The Titanic Exhibition Centre in east Belfast is set to be transformed into Northern Ireland’s latest mass Covid-19 vaccination centre by next week, as a briefing paper warned “significant intervention” could be required in the North immediately after Christmas to keep Covid-19 hospital inpatient numbers below 1,000.
First Minister of Northern Ireland Paul Givan said on Thursday evening that Stormont ministers do not want to cancel Christmas but need the public’s help to avoid a “worst-case scenario” with the spread of Omicron.
Ministers will meet next Wednesday to consider potential new coronavirus restrictions in response to the threat posed by the highly transmissible variant.
At a meeting at Stormont on Thursday, Executive ministers received a stark briefing from officials on what the next number of weeks could hold if action is not taken.
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Health chiefs are hoping that 4,000 vaccines a day will be delivered at the Titanic site. It will offer the booster jab as well as first and second doses of the Pfizer vaccine.
Tanya Daly, clinical lead of the Covid-19 vaccination programme for the South Eastern Health and Social Care Trust, said the facility would open to residents from across Northern Ireland early next week.
Ms Daly said a larger number of people would be able to use the centre than at a hospital site. “We also have excellent car parking here, we’ve got good public transport links, so that’s the benefits of being on a larger site – more people in a better location,” she said.
Ms Daly urged people to come forward for the vaccine. “Obviously it’s extremely important that we get the boosters, we know that the Omicron variant is very transmissible and the booster is going to help people not become as ill,” she said.
“But we will be able to offer first and second doses as well, so anybody who hasn’t had their first dose yet, please come forward, we’re here and we can give you your first dose of Pfizer or your second dose.
“This is a regional response, so while the South Eastern Trust are opening this mass centre here at Titanic Exhibition Centre, every trust across the region is opening larger centres, GPs are rolling out their programme, they’re going to open to all age groups as well as, of course, we have our community pharmacy colleagues.”
Ms Daly said, “There will be walk-ins and there will be opportunity to book appointments as well.”
The centre is set to be open from 8am to 8pm seven days a week for the next three weeks. It will not be open on Christmas Day or St Stephen’s Day.
All those aged 18 and over will be able to get the booster vaccine in Northern Ireland from Monday if it has been three months or more since their second dose.
‘Significant intervention’
It is understood, however, that further modelling data presented to ministers said that if the booster programme is accelerated as planned, Northern Ireland could still, in a worst-case scenario, be recording about 11,000 cases a day in the middle of next month if no further restrictions are introduced.
That modelling said that could translate to about 1,500 Covid-19 inpatients in the region’s hospitals. Ministers were told those projected numbers would be significantly higher if steps had not been taken to step up the booster rollout.
If the booster programme had continued on the same trajectory, and if no further restrictions are imposed, Northern Ireland would have been faced, in a worst-case scenario, with about 35,000 new cases a day in mid-January – with resultant Covid-19 inpatient numbers of about 4,500 at the end of the month.
The peak of Covid-19 hospital inpatient numbers during the pandemic in Northern Ireland was 1,055 in January this year.
Speaking to the media after the Executive meeting on Thursday, Mr Givan said: “What I am appealing to the public is to help us so it is not at that worst-case scenario, help us to deliver in terms of greater adherence to the public health message, the uptake of the booster.”
He added: “We are asking people to be careful over the Christmas period and follow the good advice around public health. I want us to continue to remain open and to do that safely.”
According to the latest UK government figures the number of cases of the Omicron variant in the North had risen to 210 on Thursday, compared with 151 the day before.
Mr Givan said the spread of Omicron in Northern Ireland was behind England and Scotland and that presented space to allow more adults to get their booster vaccine.
He also said if measures were introduced post-Christmas, he did not anticipate them being as severe as last year, when a six-week lockdown was triggered on December 26th.
“We are in a different place because we have got the vaccination, because we have got the booster jab being rolled out,” he said.
Financial support
The First Minister also called for flexibility from the Treasury in awarding funding to allow devolved regions to take measures to combat Covid.
He said: “A UK Treasury policy which only flows money into the devolved regions based upon English decisions is not the kind of dynamic environment we are operating in.
“So there needs to be a policy which allows flexibility so if devolved regions decided they need to take specific measures then we need to see the Treasury giving us flexibility around that.
“We haven’t been specific to say it should be furlough or should be another type of measure but we have asked that there needs to be flexibility.
“But if they don’t then we are going to have to look at our existing financial resources in the same way that Scotland has done.
“If there were any decisions taken by this Executive around other measures then there needs to be the financial support there for other sectors that could be impacted by that.”
Deputy First Minister Michelle O’Neill tweeted: “More data available next week, which will give a clearer picture of impacts and steps we may need to take.
“Evidence shows that getting booster vaccine is vital in our defence – please get yours.”
The Department of Health briefing paper, seen by the PA news agency, outlines how Omicron is expected to spread in the region.
It stressed the severity of the variant remains “uncertain” and it is likely that booster vaccinations offer protection against severe illness.
“It is likely that a peak in case numbers will occur in the middle third of January, with hospital admissions and occupancy peaking in late January/early February,” the paper added.
“The extent of the hospital peak will depend on the severity of Omicron illness, but without further measures is likely to exceed numbers observed earlier in the epidemic, potentially several fold.”
The paper said data from England and Scotland expected in the next week or two will allow the initial modelling estimates for Northern Ireland to be “refined”.
It added: “However, if Omicron is associated with disease severity close to that of Delta, significant intervention would be required immediately after Christmas at the latest to have a reasonable chance of keeping hospital inpatient numbers at less than 1,000.”
Booster drive
Details of the modelling paper emerged after it was confirmed that Northern Ireland’s booster rollout will further accelerate next week when vaccination centres open to over-18s.
Some GP and community pharmacies are already offering jabs to the 18-29 age cohort.
Another briefing document from Minister of Health Robin Swann, which was sent to fellow ministers on Wednesday night, sets out the next steps in the booster drive.
The document, also seen by PA, states health trust vaccination hubs will open to 18 to 29 year olds on a walk-in basis from Monday. People in that age group will be able to book appointments from Wednesday.
Large queues have formed at trust centres this week after the programme opened to over-30s.
Some GPs and community pharmacies are already delivering jabs to over-18s and more of these facilities will open to that cohort next week.
Mr Swann outlined plans to extend capacity at existing hubs and reactivate other mass vaccination centres, including the Foyle Arena in Derry and the South Lake Leisure Centre in Craigavon, Co Armagh. He said there are also plans to set up other fixed and mobile vaccination facilities.
The deaths of a further six patients who had previously tested positive for Covid-19 were reported on Thursday, along with another 2,237 confirmed cases of the virus.
On Thursday morning there were 309 Covid-positive patients in hospital, of whom 32 were in intensive care. – PA