Global trade growth eased to 4 per cent last year as the economic crisis took a bigger toll than previously forecast on commerce among nations, the World Trade Organization said.
That's less than the 4.5 per cent growth WTO economists predicted last April, when they said strong expansion in emerging markets would fail to offset a slowdown in developed nations this year.
Trade grew about 5.5 per cent in 2007, down from 8.5 per cent the year before. Trade was already slowing in the first half of 2008 due to a combination of factors including the credit crunch and rising commodity prices, particularly for food and oil.
In the second half of the year, there was a "sharp turnaround" in the growth of merchandise trade, which "turned negative in November" WTO director-general Pascal Lamy said in an internal report to members that was obtained by Bloomberg.
"Growth began to decline in the third quarter, and this became more accentuated as the year drew to a close," Mr Lamy said in the January 26th report.
The World Bank forecasts a 2.1 per cent decline in global export volumes this year, the first drop since 1982.
Export opportunities for developing countries are likely to fade rapidly this year because of the recession in high-income countries, shortages in export credits and the increased cost of export insurance, according to the World Bank.
Bloomberg