Finding the middle ground has got no easier

We have all heard the expression "an out of body experience" to describe a mystical event where the spirit seems to float above…

We have all heard the expression "an out of body experience" to describe a mystical event where the spirit seems to float above the everyday world. But in Stormont these days you can have an "out of politics" experience.

A Martian arriving in the canteen would assume this was a fully-functioning parliament, as a television screen overhead repeatedly sends out a message about "forthcoming business" but if the guns versus government issue isn't sorted out, Stormont will be returned to its many ghosts.

Meanwhile, the question on everyone's lips is, will they, won't they? Will Mr Blair and Mr Ahern come back for one last push? There is agreement that if they do it will not be until Thursday. Senior sources indicate there is an eagerness on Dublin's part to bring the Taoiseach on to the playing-pitch once again. For understandable reasons, Downing Street is not fully focused on Northern Ireland at the moment and only the prospect of real progress on forming an executive will lure the Prime Minister back to Belfast. There is no appetite for another four-day marathon without a decisive result.

Whether there is a real prospect of success will be clearer by this evening. Round-table talks are expected to start at 10 a.m. today, to be followed by smaller meetings. The Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mr Andrews, who has been partially eclipsed of late by his able, energetic and articulate Minister of State, Ms Liz O'Donnell, appears set for a return to prominence, and both Iveagh House Ministers will be there, along with the Northern Secretary, Dr Mo Mowlam and her Political Development Minister, Mr Paul Murphy.

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Insiders say the Taoiseach has been busy mending his fences with Sinn Fein. The consensus between mainstream nationalism and republicanism was rocked by Mr Ahern's apparent support for the unionist position on decommissioning as the price of Sinn Fein participation in government. Angry things were said in private by republicans but Mr Ahern's emollient skills, applied during intensive meetings, seem to have worked because the Sinn Fein side has calmed down considerably.

However, that is not to say a resolution is in sight. The mood in political circles is relaxed but not optimistic. It may still be possible to mark out the elusive middle ground with a formula that satisfies everyone but nobody is betting the farm that it will happen.

Dublin's decision to release the Balcombe Street gang may have caused displeasure in some quarters but it has helped to stabilise the republican constituency. The proposed removal of the security forces from the grounds of Crossmaglen Rangers GAA club has probably helped to reassure republicans.

The difficulty for the two governments is to bring the republicans back on board without losing the Ulster Unionists. The problem is that anything which reassures republicans tends to alarm unionists and vice-versa - especially in the security area.

There has been considerable toing and froing between London and Dublin on the long-awaited package of normalisation and demilitarisation measures due to be announced by the British side. Insiders said Dublin had sent the document back no fewer than three times because it was felt to be too weak. Close observers say republicans have been less surefooted politically in recent months and that is why they have been losing the political and propaganda battle on decommissioning. In addition, episodes such as the Donegal Celtic affair, with all its sinister connotations and the spate of appalling paramilitary-style beatings, were used as evidence by the unionists to back up their case that republicans could not be trusted in the democratic process. Some of the best republican brains weren't even on the island when a lot of this was going on, so perhaps it's not surprising that they misread the situation somewhat.

The wake-up call for Sinn Fein came on Holy Thursday when the Hillsborough Declaration signalled that Dublin was about to draw a clear and definitive line on decommissioning. Privately, republicans were disillusioned, disappointed and even a little surprised at the stance taken by the Taoiseach and those closest to him.

But somehow or other, the nationalist consensus still survives. The resourcefulness and verbal dexterity of the mandarins may yet ensure that the Holy Thursday document can be recast in a way that both sides can live with.

Hope can be drawn from the fact that key figures on both the republican and unionist sides want to see the executive formed, if they can square it with their principles. The working relationship that has evolved between Mr Martin McGuinness of Sinn Fein and senior unionists may not be warm but it is businesslike and the two sides are coming to understand each other's positions a good deal better.

The day of reconciliation, which originally sprang from an idea put forward by a senior church leader, may still have some shelf-life left. During the rather unfortunate 10-day "pause for reflection" unionists have become increasingly concerned that police officers' lives could be equated with those of paramilitaries: that could scupper the whole notion quite quickly. But such an event could help to neutralise the weapons issue for republicans.

True reconciliation means there can be no losers.