CONSTITUENCY NOTEBOOK: Galway East may not have quite the zest of its neighbouring marginal in Galway West. But Fianna Fáil has targeted this as one of the constituencies that could make a difference in the drive for that elusive overall majority, writes Lorna Siggins, Western Correspondent.
Currently the four-seater is shared equally between the two main parties, but Fianna Fáil is making a concerted effort to take a third seat. Two factors - Fine Gael's emphasis on the lack of jobs and the candidacy of an Independent, former Fianna Fáil member Cllr Paddy McHugh - may make this task insurmountable. The sprawling constituency was extended under the 1995 constituency review, increasing the number of seats from three to four.
It is largely rural, but takes in the expanding urban areas of Ballinasloe, Tuam, Athenry, Loughrea, Gort and Portumna. Job losses in Ballinasloe and a failure to date to find replacements for those closures has proved controversial; while planning and National Roads Authority negotiations relating to upgrading the N6 are also live issues.
Minister of State Mr Noel Treacy, one of Fianna Fáil's two sitting TDs, ran in the European elections in 1999 and came in behind both Ms Dana Rosemary Scallon, who took the seat, and the independent, Ms Marian Harkin.
However, a recent poll, carried out by the Galway Advertiser and Bluebird Marketing, indicated that his popularity is undimmed. He topped that poll, with 20 per cent.
Significantly, it showed that his running mate, long-serving TD Mr Michael Kitt, could be at risk - and that Cllr McHugh could be the kingmaker with almost 13 per cent.
Mr McHugh was a Fianna Fáil councillor for 20 years and has a strong support base in his home area between Tuam and Headford. He decided to stand as an independent when he didn't get selected at the convention, which chose Mr Joe Callanan as Fianna Fáil's third candidate.
Cllr Callanan, like Mr Treacy and Mr Kitt, is from Ballinasloe, and though he performed well at 17 per cent in the poll, he is drawing from the same group of voters.
On a good day, Fianna Fáil might just realise its dream, as Fine Gael's Mr Paul Connaughton found himself performing badly in the survey with 16 per cent - compared to 19 per cent for his colleague, Mr Ulick Burke. However, the two Fine Gael TDs are stressing the employment issue and the lack of success in finding a replacement for A.T. Cross in Ballinasloe. This is in spite of best efforts by the IDA and Enterprise Ireland - and a commitment from the Tánaiste and Minister for Public Enterprise, Ms Harney.
In contrast to 1997, the Progressive Democrats, are not running a candidate. Nor is Labour, which also put in a challenge last time and took just under 8 per cent.
Sinn Féin has selected a 23-year-old NUI Galway student, Daithí Mac an Bhaird, who is originally from Carrickmacross in Co Monaghan. Apart from Cllr McHugh, a second Independent will be running on an anti-corruption and environmental ticket.
Certainly, waste has been a big issue - selection of new landfill sites to replace Ballinasloe's Poolboy dump has proved controversial among landowners - but the constituency is still largely conservative in its voting patterns. .
Farmers who are concerned about locations of landfills and emerging preferred routes for the new motorway are angry about the Minister for Agriculture's failure to open up the Egyptian market for the live cattle trade, at a time when margins are becoming tighter and tighter. Just how this anger will translate into votes on election day is anyone's guess.
Prediction: FF 2, FG 2. No change.
1997: FF 48.60%; FG 31.17%; Lab 7.92%; PDs 7.41%; NP 0.23%; Others 4.67%.
Outgoing TDs: Michael Kitt and Noel Treacy (FF); Paul Connaughton and Ulick Burke (FG)