PROF Seamus Sheehy, one of the few people to accurately predict the impact of the CAP reforms in 1992, yesterday said that the new farm package would have no major impact on the agriculture sector.
"As far as I can make out, it will be all right. It is a break-even situation and I even predict there will be some gain for consumers flowing from the package," said the Professor of Agriculture at UCD.
Prof Sheehy said that a lot of hard issues had been postponed by the Farm Ministers when they agreed the reform of the farm package early yesterday morning in Brussels.
He said the issue of decoupling direct payments, the extent of these payments and the issue of the milk quota appear to have been put off. The next strain on the CAP would be the World Trade talks, which begin next year.
The Minister for Agriculture and Food, Mr Walsh, described the outcome of the negotiations as "a remarkable success for Ireland" and recalled that Ireland faced losses of £226 million a year when the original proposals were published in March 1998.
He said the changes which had been negotiated had wiped out that loss, and he was satisfied that he had protected the interests of Irish agriculture. In fact, he said, there was scope for the sector to make gains from the deal.
"The estimated losses were based on the assumption that market prices in each of the three sectors being reformed would fall by the full amount of the reduction in support prices.
"Such a fall is not inevitable. Indeed, the likelihood is that this will not happen and a better marketing effort by food processors and further improvements in quality should ensure that prices will not fall fully in line with the cut in support prices," he said.
On beef, where the estimated annual loss through 30 per cent support cuts had been reduced by 10 per cent, Mr Walsh said that an annual estimated loss of £150 million had been turned into an annual gain of £40 million.
He believed the reform would bring about a balanced beef market in the EU, with significant export opportunities which would benefit the Irish beef industry. He stressed the need for the industry to prepare itself to exploit these opportunities.
On milk, he said Ireland had gained an additional quota of 32 million gallons over the life of the package and the quota system had been extended to 2006. The 15 per cent price support reduction would be compensated at the rate of about 9p a gallon.
In the cereals area the 20 per cent support cut would be compensated for at the rate of £9.45 per tonne, while the rate of compulsory setaside would be 10 per cent for the marketing years 2000/ 01 and 2001/02. It would then cease.