Even split for anti, pro-agreement unionists

The operation of the Northern Assembly could be frustrated because of a significant division within unionism, as suggested by the Ulster Marketing Surveys exit poll conducted for The Irish Times and RTE. The exit poll of 1,600 people carried out throughout Northern Ireland up to 8 p.m last night indicates an almost even split between pro-agreement and anti-agreement unionists.

While the transfer system of voting would be expected to work in favour of the pro-agreement Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) the figures if correct suggest that the No unionist side in the referendum nonetheless will have a strong representation in the Assembly.

While the poll also suggests that supporters of the main anti-agreement parties, the DUP and UK Unionist Party, are divided on whether they want the Assembly to succeed or collapse, the figures point to many of them demanding that their candidates thwart key elements of the agreement such as cross-Border bodies, and Sinn Fein members serving as ministers.

The poll shows 47 per cent of DUP voters and 38 per cent of UKUP voters wanting their favoured candidates to "work to ensure the success of the Assembly".

It also shows, however, 36 per cent of DUP voters and 42 per cent of UKUP voters want their candidates to co-operate with the Assembly only so far as it "advances their own principles". This could be interpreted as these voters wanting their candidates to oppose key elements of the agreement such as cross Border-bodies and Sinn Fein members taking ministerial positions.

Were these parties to be in a position to follow the latter instruction this could render the Assembly unworkable. One-in-seven DUP supporters and one-in-eight UKUP voters want their candidates to "work to bring the Assembly to an end". The exit poll indicates that eight out of 10 UUP and Sinn Fein supporters and nine out of 10 SDLP and Alliance voters want the Assembly to succeed.

On the key issue of IRA decommissioning 68 per cent of UUP voters and 44 per cent of DUP voters say Sinn Fein should only be permitted to serve in an Assembly executive if the IRA disarms. Five out of 10 DUP supporters and four-in-10 UKUP voters say Sinn Fein should not be allowed to hold ministerial positions "in any circumstances".

Unionists appear slightly less vehement in their attitude to loyalist paramilitary decommissioning. Six out of 10 UKUP voters and 56 per cent of DUP supporters say the UVF and UDA must disarm before their respective political representatives - the Progressive Unionist Party and the Ulster Democratic Party - could hold ministerial positions.

Thirty-five per cent of DUP supporters and 27 per cent of UKUP people say the loyalist parties should not be allowed take ministerial positions under any circumstances.

But the poll firmly indicates that these vexed issues will not go away, and that the DUP and UKUP in particular may take their cue from their supporters to impede the creation of North-South bodies with significant powers, and to maintain an almost obsessive focus on the issue of decommissioning.

If the SDLP has the highest number of seats as the exit poll predicts then theoretically its party leader, Mr John Hume, could be elected first minister of the Assembly. However, as the first minister and deputy first minister can only be elected with a sufficient consensus of nationalist and unionist support such an outcome would appear unrealistic.

Were Mr Hume to be proposed for the position unionist members would be virtually certain to oppose him, creating a stalemate position. The more likely position is that the SDLP may agree to support Mr Trimble for the position.