Rise of political extremism in Europe now shaping mainstream politics

And so it came to pass. The rise of political extremism evident in opinion polls across Europe for some months has manifested itself in the European elections.

Mainstream political parties may still retain the balance of power in the European Parliament, but the record performance of parties on the political fringes may force many in the EU establishment to confront what they often suppress – the growing gulf between voters and the EU institutions that represent them.

As outgoing European Parliament president Martin Schulz put it as polls closed on Sunday, it is “a very bad day” for the European Union when a party with such an explicitly racist and xenophobic agenda as the National Front wins 25 per cent of the vote in France. But he added that the results showed the European Union needed to listen to voters. It remains to be seen if his words will be heeded.

Will the new faces in the 751-strong assembly have an impact on the European Union and its political agenda over the next five years? Not as much as many voters might hope. While the European Parliament undoubtedly has much more power since the Lisbon Treaty, it still does not have the authority to initiate legislation, while national governments, who meet in the European Council and Council of Ministers formation, continue to exert the most influence on decision-making in Brussels.

Nonetheless, the parliament will have co-decision powers over a number of key legislative packages, including data protection, the EU-US trade deal and climate change. Other areas where the new parliament may flex their muscle includes financial regulation and taxation, with Ireland’s low corporate tax rate potentially coming under the spotlight once more.

The real impact of the surge in the populist vote will be felt at a national level, as evidenced by the resignation of Labour Party leader Eamon Gilmore yesterday. This is particularly the case in countries with imminent general elections, such as Britain, where the rise of Ukip has spelt serious trouble for the main British political parties ahead of next year’s election.

Similarly, in Sweden, the party of prime minister Fredrik Reinfeldt performed dismally in the elections, raising questions about his future, while in Slovenia, which faces a general election in the coming months following the resignation of the prime minister earlier this month, the main opposition party topped the polls. Yesterday two opposition leaders also stood down – the leader of Romania’s liberal Opposition party Crin Antonescu and Spanish Socialist Party leader Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba. Political extremism But the impact is not confined to its influence on the configuration of governments. The real story of the rise of political extremism in Europe is how it is shaping mainstream politics and policy across the continent. This is most starkly evident in Britain where Ukip – despite having no seats in parliament – has shaped the ruling Conservative party’s policy on immigration and the EU. Similarly, the rise of Marine Le Pen has forced the mainstream political parties in France to harden their stance on immigration as they see their voters defect in droves to the National Front.

As with Ireland, voters across the EU have used the European elections to punish sitting governments. The heterogeneity of the successful parties in these elections has sent analysts searching for trends.

One thesis is that southern, Mediterranean countries such as Spain and Greece, which bore the brunt of the euro zone crisis, have opted for far-left candidates, while countries in the more fiscally conservative north such as the Nordic countries and the Netherlands are fertile ground for the far-right. (Ireland’s election of three Sinn Féin MEPs which has garnered much international attention, puts it firmly in the former category.)

An east-west divide is also evident, particularly in the turnout figures. The surprising halt in the trend of declining voter turnout was predominantly driven by stronger turnouts in western countries such as France and Germany, while many former communist countries such as Slovenia and the Czech Republic barely inched past 20 per cent, with turnout in Slovakia at 13 per cent.

Attention in Brussels will now switch to the appointment of the top jobs in the European Union, with EU leaders meeting tonight in Brussels to discuss the appointment of the next European Commission president. The surprise rise in voter turnout, however fractional, prompted some to claim yesterday that the new policy of nominating a candidate for commission president ahead of the election had succeeded in engaging the public, though most conceded that voters had scant awareness of the connection between their vote and that appointment.

While the proposed Spitzenkandidat system has many detractors, it will at least force EU leaders to justify and defend how they select the candidate for the top jobs in the EU. The system requires parliament groups to name their top candidate for the commission presidency post in advance of the European elections.

Despite losing more than 60 seats, the centre-right group, the European People’s Party (EPP), has secured a majority in the next parliament with 213 seats on the basis of current party affiliations. At a press conference in Brussels yesterday, Jean-Claude Juncker claimed he would become the next commission president. Major reservations A number of countries have major reservations about Juncker’s possible appointment, with Hungarian prime minister and EPP-member Viktor Orban this week echoing Britain’s opposition to his candidature.

With Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrat party the largest group in the EPP, the chancellor’s support will be critical, but even with the support of Merkel many believe that leaders will be unable to over-ride Britain’s concerns.

Other appointments to be made include Catherine Ashton’s successor as the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs, and the president of the European Council.

Outgoing Finnish prime minister Jyrki Katainen and Polish foreign minister Radoslaw Sikorski are some of the names being mentioned, while Taoiseach Enda Kenny is still perceived as a strong candidate to replace Herman Van Rompuy as head of the European Council.

The fun starts this evening when EU leaders meet in Brussels, but the election process promises to continue for some time as the power structure that will govern the European Union over the next five years gradually takes shape.