Elections are putting Milosevic's hold on Montenegro to the test

The crowd is heady. "Yugoslavia! Yugoslavia! Slobo! Slobo!" they chant

The crowd is heady. "Yugoslavia! Yugoslavia! Slobo! Slobo!" they chant. They wave Yugoslav flags and brandish pictures of Slobodan Milosevic. Four bloody wars, Western bombs, sanctions and diplomatic isolation have not quenched their fervour, and local elections in this tiny republic of Montenegro have now unleashed it.

Earlier, snipers in black prowl the rooftops of the Montenegrin capital, Podgorica. Policemen in flak jackets and helmets brandish automatic weapons. The atmosphere is tense.

Montenegro is in the midst a political, economic and national identity crisis, and tomorrow's elections are no ordinary town hall poll.

The pro-West government of Montenegro is trying to break from the policies of the Yugoslav President and wants a referendum on independence.

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The election is not really about who controls rubbish collection or who cleans the swimming pools; it is about who supports Milosevic and who supports the West. The underlying question is "Do you support Milosevic or the West?"

The status of the country is even more complicated. A vote for Milosevic is a vote for the federation, but there are many - including Montenegro's Western backers - who want to see the republic remain in the federation without Milosevic.

Montenegro is a rugged, searingly beautiful country, on distinctly rocky foundations. Interpol has no remit here, because Montenegro is formally within the federation of pariah Yugoslavia. So the streets are jammed with smart new BMWs and Audis, most of them stolen.

Cigarette-sellers line the streets, and most of the cigarettes are smuggled. The West is pouring money into a state where financial accountability is impossible.

There's a wildness about Montenegro, heightened by election fervour. The country has a population of only 630,000. The polls are only in two cities, Podgorica and the coastal town of Herceg Novi.

"To some extent, these elections have nothing to do with local issues," says Mr Srdjan Darmanovic, a political scientist from the Centre for Democracy and Human Rights.

"They decide on who will rule the capital, and in any country that's important. These elections also give a third of the population the right to vote," he said.

Both cities are key swing marginal constituencies, and the elections come halfway through the terms of Montenegro's pro-West President, Mr Milo Djukanovic, and the pro-West government.

Opinion is deeply polarised. "So, as long as Djukanovic is in power and as long as there is a politically divided Montenegro, any elections are a kind of mini-referendum," Mr Darmanovic adds.

The pro-Milosevic supporters are backing the Coalition for Yugoslavia. The rally exploits all the symbols and pulse points of traditionalist Yugoslavia. And the crowd responds.

They dance and sing folk songs between the political speeches. Two religious icons adorn the stage.

A 35-year-old mother is in her element. Dressed in her best, a short scarlet dress, she raises her hand in the three-fingered Serb salute.

Asked why the elections matter, she replies: "Because of Kosovo." Yugoslavia lost Kovoso. She wanted to ensure that Kosovo was reclaimed and Montenegro did not go next.

The speakers lay into the Djukanovic government, accusing it of corruption. It is a charge that to many hits home.

A leading pro-West analyst, Mr Nebojsa Medojevic, says the Djukanovic government has more influence in ordinary people's lives than any government in the last 20 years.

Mr Medojevic, a member of the respected G17 group of Yugoslav economists, is deeply critical of the performance of the government. He says that it has failed to deliver the substantial economic reforms it pledged and that the few privatisations that have taken place were irregular.

An adviser to President Djukanovic, Mr Miodrag Vukovic seems to confirm that their economic record is poor.

When asked to name one of the government's successes, he is at a loss. But he points out that Montenegro does not close down dissenting media like its sister state, Serbia, or arrest journalists and opposition leaders on the street.

But Mr Medojevic remains unconvinced. "My government exercises power without responsibility," he says, alleging that there is no independent sector and no independent media.

Similarly the West is not asking for rigorous accounting of the money it provides. "Its priority is to bolster Montenegro against Milosevic," he says.

These poll results will check or encourage the Djukanovic government. Analysts suggest that his coalition may win in the capital, and perhaps can rule in Herceg Novi if it joins in government with the smaller anti-war and pro-independence Liberal party.

But another crossroads is already ahead. The long-term status of Montenegro cannot then be ignored, by Belgrade, Podgorica or the international community.

Mr Milosevic must hold federal elections by the end of this year. And everyone in Montenegro knows that if that these are not handled carefully by all the authorities, Montenegro will be the site of the fifth Balkan war.