What next for the Celtic Tiger? Jim O'Leary of Davy Stockbrokers will address the question in the second lecture in this series, this Thursday evening at 8 p.m.
O'Leary says the economy cannot continue to grow at the rapid rate of previous years because we lack the labour resources. However, we need to worry about the economy slowing down to below its potential. Damage to the ICT sector in Ireland will depend on the extent of slowdown in Europe, our main export market; and the shake-out in the PC industry may translate into PC assemblies being shifted to lowercost locations.
It is too early to quantify the effects of foot-and-mouth, he says. Even if all Irish exports of livestock and meat products were banned, this is only 2.3 per cent of all exports. Tourism, however, is worth 5 per cent of GNP: continuing restricted movement could result in job losses in catering, entertainment, transport and accommodation.
While interest rates have already fallen in the US by 1.5 per cent so far this year, O'Leary feels they need to fall another 1 per cent and the ECB needs to reduce its too in order to avert global recession. Meanwhile, should investors be opportunistic and reap this opportunity to invest in cheaper shares?
These are but some of the issues O'Leary will develop this Thursday, at CDVEC Plunket College, Swords Road (opposite the Regency Hotel), Whitehall, Dublin. The lecture series is a CDVEC initiative supported by EL. Plunket College offers adult education courses, mainstream Junior Cert, Leaving Cert and repeat Leaving Cert.
Please note that the lecture, for this week only, takes place on Thursday rather than Tuesday. The third lecture is on Tuesday, April 10th, and will be given by Father Peter McVerry.
Rosemary Dawson is PR consultant, director and publicist for World Book Week
