DUP forced to confront threat from McCartney

Overview: Ian Paisley brought us out to Castlereagh Hills golf club for a full Ulster fry yesterday morning while Sir Reg Empey…

Overview:Ian Paisley brought us out to Castlereagh Hills golf club for a full Ulster fry yesterday morning while Sir Reg Empey treated us to coffee and biscuits at the Ulster Unionist HQ in east Belfast in the afternoon. Oh, the sweet life of a political journalist in Northern Ireland, writes Gerry Moriarty

But, as we all know, there's no such thing as a free lunch, or breakfast, and both Dr Paisley and Sir Reg had messages to sell. It was Valentine's Day but the DUP leader wasn't thinking of love, he was thinking of massacre - of the Ulster Unionist Party, and anybody else who would dare threaten his quest for DUP political hegemony.

UKUP leader Robert McCartney, for instance, who is campaigning against the DUP on a No-deal with Sinn Féin ticket, and who wouldn't mind Martin McGuinness being first minister, so there'll never be a first minister, if you follow the logic, because unionists couldn't tolerate such an eventuality.

Sinn Féin politicians were happy yesterday to stir the mix by agreeing that yes, Mr McCartney could be correct, that Sinn Féin could be the lead party on polling day.

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Rather maddening for Dr Paisley and his colleagues. Senior DUP sources, however, reckon that ultimately Mr McCartney's strategy will be self-defeating. "Any unionist seen as trying to help Sinn Féin win more votes than the DUP will be punished in the polls because that would be too bitterly symbolic for any unionist to wear," said one senior party figure.

Behind the scenes party strategists accept that Mr McCartney and other deal opponents will inflict some damage on the DUP. "We figure we could lose 3 per cent of our vote," said one senior source. "But we expect to make gains from the centre ground by about 7 per cent. That is what our own studies and polling is telling us, that we can make a net gain of 4 per cent." There's an element of calculated risk here which is interesting because it shows the DUP is willing to move from safe ground to try to get this deal over the line.

Sir Reg was laying down a challenge to Dr Paisley as well. He is convinced that the majority of unionists believe there is enough on the table from Sinn Féin to justify entering into a powersharing executive on March 26th but that the DUP is so fractured on the issue it is sending out an incoherent message on the doorsteps. Certainly, from joining early canvasses there is little evidence of deep unionist opposition to powersharing (see South Belfast report on this page).

It is indeed very difficult to establish a good compass fix on what will happen after the election, which could be bewildering unionists. One moment you're listening to the DUP hard men and women and you think Dr Paisley just won't be in a position to strike a deal by March 26th because the likes of William McCrea and Jim Allister won't let him.

The next you're listening to Peter Robinson or Jeffrey Donaldson and you feel that agreement by the deadline is definitely achievable, even though they keep using the line that it is for Sinn Féin to prove it is up for powersharing, not the other way around.

Against all this there a danger that a confused message could prompt unionists, if not to vote for Mr McCartney, to stay away from the polls, which could be much more damaging for the DUP. Pressure is now falling on the DUP strategists to start softening its policy and make clear - or at least clearer - that by March 26th powersharing with Sinn Féin can happen.